FNUS75 KRIW 081224
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR POLE CREEK RX...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
624 AM MDT WED SEP 8 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2140 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGED NORTHWARD OVER THE FIRE
SITE. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
TODAY. THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS MORNING THROUGH
10 AM. ANY LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A
MAINLY DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS AND A DECENT SHOT AT WETTING PRECIPITATION.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50 PERCENT) AROUND NOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
                    BY LATE MORNING.  BEST CHANCE BEFORE 10 AM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5-10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH
                    BETWEEN 1100 AND 1300. GUSTS TO 35 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    20-30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT BEFORE 10 AM...THEN 1 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (60500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (192800 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40 PERCENT). VERY ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........AROUND 50 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 5-10
                    MPH BY 2100. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.1 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1200 FT AGL
                    BY MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 23 TO 29 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (154200 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (36800 KNOT-FT) BY 2200.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT IN THE MORNING...INCREASING IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH
                    BY NOON...SWITCHING TO WEST BETWEEN 1600 AND 1800.
                    GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT...THEN 25 PERCENT AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (87200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (173300 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS...AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH.

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...LOCKWOOD
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100907.POLEC.02/RIW