FNUS75 KBOU 081558 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FOURMILE CANYON...BOULDER COUNTY EOC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 955 AM MDT WED SEP 8 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...HIGH WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY... .DISCUSSION...FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FIRE AREA BETWEEN 1030 AND 1130 THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 1200...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH THRU 1200 WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES. BY 1200 THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS 8-12 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OF COURSE. HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. SMOKE DISPERSAL WILL BE FAIR THIS MORNING...THEN GOOD DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...PLEASE NOTE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU MIDDAY FRIDAY LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO INCREASING WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH AT TIMES IN THE FIRE AREA WITH LOW HUMIDITIES... ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1100...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1030. MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75. MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12-18 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 8-13 MPH. RIDGETOP WINDS......WEST SOUTHWEST 20-30 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1030...THEN 4. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-24 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7400-8400 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....51. MAX HUMIDITY........64%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-13 MPH. RIDGETOP WINDS......SOUTHWEST 20-30 MPH...DECREASING TO 10-20 MPH AFTER 2000. LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH...DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH AFTER 1900. MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-75. MIN HUMIDITY........20-24%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN SOUTHWEST 8-13 MPH. RIDGETOP WINDS......SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH...INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH AFTER 1500. LAL.................1 TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7800-8800 FT AGL AFTER 0900. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FOURMILE CANYON. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/08-09 63 10 59 48 W 8 12 2 1 SW37 1968 W 22 37512 P 09/08-10 63 10 63 43 W 7 1 3775 W 20 58464 F 09/08-11 63 10 66 39 SW 7 1 5581 SW 18 79416 G 09/08-12 72 26 69 37 SW 7 7 2 4 SW46 7388 SW 16 100369 V 09/08-13 72 26 70 36 S 7 4 7801 SW 14 84587 G 09/08-14 72 26 70 37 SE 8 4 8214 S 10 68805 G 09/08-15 72 26 70 37 E 8 13 2 4 S 8 8627 SE 7 53023 F 09/08-16 72 26 70 39 SE 7 4 8046 S 7 50396 F 09/08-17 72 26 69 41 S 6 4 7465 SW 7 47768 F 09/08-18 72 27 70 41 SW 5 5 2 4 SW16 6883 SW 8 45141 F 09/08-19 72 27 67 46 SW 6 4 5104 SW 8 34410 P 09/08-20 72 27 64 51 W 8 4 3324 W 9 23680 P 09/08-21 68 20 62 54 W 10 16 2 3 SW26 1544 W 9 12950 P 09/08-22 68 20 60 57 W 10 3 1122 W 9 9183 P 09/08-23 68 20 59 59 W 10 3 701 W 8 5416 P 09/09-00 38 6 56 62 W 9 14 2 1 SW32 279 W 7 1649 P 09/09-01 38 6 55 64 W 9 1 248 W 7 1449 P 09/09-02 38 6 53 64 W 8 1 218 W 7 1249 P 09/09-03 38 6 52 64 W 8 12 2 1 SW37 187 W 7 1049 P 09/09-04 38 6 52 62 W 7 1 187 W 7 1008 P 09/09-05 38 6 52 60 W 7 1 188 W 6 967 P 09/09-06 42 4 52 59 W 7 7 2 1 SW31 189 W 6 926 P 09/09-07 42 4 53 56 W 7 1 1657 W 10 25879 P 09/09-08 42 4 57 49 W 8 1 3126 SW 15 50833 F 09/09-09 42 4 61 43 W 9 14 2 1 S33 4595 SW 20 75787 G 09/09-10 42 4 65 37 W 8 1 5581 SW 20 92929 G 09/09-11 42 4 67 34 SW 8 1 6567 SW 20 110071 V 09/09-12 50 1 69 31 S 7 7 2 1 SW43 7553 SW 20 127213 V 09/09-13 50 1 71 28 S 7 1 8037 SW 18 126933 V 09/09-14 50 1 71 26 S 7 1 8521 SW 17 126654 V 09/09-15 50 1 72 24 S 8 10 2 1 SW32 9005 SW 16 126374 V 09/09-16 50 1 72 23 SW 8 1 8153 SW 16 113449 V 09/09-17 50 1 71 23 W 8 1 7301 SW 16 100525 V 09/09-18 54 1 70 22 W 10 16 2 1 SW35 6448 SW 16 87601 G 09/09-19 54 1 67 25 W 15 1 5466 SW 20 87097 G 09/09-20 54 1 64 28 W 22 1 4483 W 24 86592 G 09/09-21 54 1 62 30 W 25 41 3 1 S32 3501 W 29 86088 G 09/09-22 54 1 60 32 W 28 1 2837 W 33 76432 G 09/09-23 54 1 58 34 W 26 1 2174 W 38 66776 G 09/10-00 45 0 55 38 W 26 41 4 1 SW35 1510 W 44 57121 F 09/10-01 45 0 53 40 W 25 1 1339 W 44 50604 F 09/10-02 45 0 52 41 W 25 1 1167 W 44 44089 F 09/10-03 45 0 51 42 W 24 39 4 1 SW47 996 W 44 37573 P 09/10-04 45 0 50 42 W 24 1 1251 W 44 47124 F 09/10-05 45 0 50 41 W 24 1 1507 W 44 56675 F 09/10-06 45 0 50 40 W 24 38 3 1 SW56 1763 W 44 66226 G 09/10-07 45 0 51 37 W 23 1 3033 W 41 107201 V 09/10-08 45 0 54 32 W 23 1 4303 W 40 148176 V 09/10-09 45 0 58 28 W 22 36 3 1 SW52 5573 W 39 189152 E 09/10-10 45 0 61 24 W 23 1 6732 W 37 206024 E 09/10-11 45 0 63 22 W 24 1 7891 W 33 222896 E 09/10-12 37 0 65 21 W 25 41 3 1 W17 9051 W 31 239768 E 09/10-13 37 0 66 21 W 25 1 9252 W 31 242169 E 09/10-14 37 0 66 21 W 25 1 9454 W 30 244569 E 09/10-15 37 0 67 22 W 24 38 2 1 W32 9655 W 30 246970 E 09/10-16 37 0 67 23 W 23 1 9073 W 30 235468 E 09/10-17 37 0 65 26 W 21 1 8490 W 30 223967 E 09/10-18 37 0 65 27 W 18 30 2 1 W31 7906 W 31 212466 E 09/10-19 37 0 62 30 W 16 1 09/10-20 37 0 59 33 W 15 1 09/10-21 37 0 57 34 W 13 21 1 09/10-22 37 0 55 35 W 10 1 09/10-23 37 0 53 36 W 9 1 09/11-00 22 0 51 38 W 7 7 1 09/11-01 22 0 49 40 SW 6 1 09/11-02 22 0 47 42 SW 5 1 09/11-03 22 0 46 44 SW 5 5 1 09/11-04 22 0 46 45 SW 6 1 09/11-05 22 0 46 46 SW 6 1 09/11-06 22 0 46 47 W 7 7 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...RUSSELL DAWDY REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100908.FOURM.01/BOU