FNUS75 KRIW 091133
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BULL...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
533 AM MDT THU SEP 9 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1805 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FIRE SITE BETWEEN
1400 AND 1600...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS EXPECTED. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 8000 FEET LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIP TO AROUND 7000 FEET TONIGHT. SOME ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 8000 FEET TONIGHT. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE FIRE SITE IS LIKELY. SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE AREA
BEGINS TO DRY OUT. A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING...BECOMING NUMEROUS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 35 PERCENT...INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 5-10 MPH...INCREASING
                    TO AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN NOON AND
                    1400...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH BETWEEN
                    1400 AND 1600 WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS AROUND
                    30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST SOUTHEAST 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH BETWEEN NOON AND 1400. GUSTS
                    AROUND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT BEFORE 1400...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10-20 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20-30 MPH
                    BY NOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (68500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (129600 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
                    LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...WEST 5-10 MPH BY 2100.
                    GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.75 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-5500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2500 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS......WEST TO SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (113100 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR
                    (57700 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5-10 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200-6200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO GOOD.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...WARMER. MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...BULL LOOKOUT
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100908.BULL_.01/RIW