FNUS75 KRIW 090833
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR POLE CREEK RX...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
233 AM MDT THU SEP 9 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND WIND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 1400 AND 1600 WITH
STRENGTHENING SW WINDS AND RAPID INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND NOON. WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SNOW WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 8000
AND 8500 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
                    WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-57.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-34 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH FROM 1000 TO 1200...INCREASING TO
                    20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH BETWEEN NOON
                    AND 1400. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 20 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 30
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.70 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7300-8000 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 35 IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (103900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (200100 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN
                    8000 AND 8500 FEET.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-34.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-93 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING...DECREASING TO 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.40 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-6200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3400 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (151500 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO GOOD
                    (77800 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-52.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO VERY GOOD (95600-137400 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 12 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...POLE CREEK TRAINEE
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100909.POLEC.01/RIW