FNUS75 KBOU 110906 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 300 AM MDT SAT SEP 11 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AND DRY RESULTING IN VERY LOW HUMIDITIES...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME WEST WIND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FIRE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH A POSSIBLE SWITCH TO UPSLOPE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY DOMINATE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT. MONDAY MAY BE EVEN WARMER. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-66. MIN HUMIDITY........12-15%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 3000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 8000 FT AGL BY 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. VERY GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-39. MAX HUMIDITY........30-40%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...LOWERING TO 1000 FT AGL BY 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2200. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-67. MIN HUMIDITY........10-13%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH...BECOMING UPSLOPE/ UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 3000 FT AGL BY 1200 AND 8000 FT AGL BY 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHS IN THE 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/11-02 1 0 42 37 W 10 26 1 466 SW 12 4564 P 09/11-03 1 0 40 39 SW 9 14 2 1 NW39 518 SW 10 4623 P 09/11-04 0 0 38 41 W 9 24 1 418 SW 10 3825 P 09/11-05 0 0 36 43 W 10 21 1 319 W 12 3027 P 09/11-06 0 0 33 47 W 12 18 4 1 W38 219 W 12 2229 P 09/11-07 0 0 34 47 W 12 1 1243 W 13 14429 P 09/11-08 0 0 41 39 W 12 1 2267 W 13 26629 P 09/11-09 0 0 47 32 W 10 16 4 1 W33 3291 W 14 38829 P 09/11-10 0 0 52 25 W 10 1 4869 W 15 67917 G 09/11-11 0 0 55 22 W 9 1 6447 W 16 97005 G 09/11-12 3 0 58 19 SW 9 15 4 1 W32 8025 W 18 126093 V 09/11-13 3 0 60 17 W 9 1 8407 W 18 133796 V 09/11-14 3 0 61 16 W 9 1 8789 W 18 141499 V 09/11-15 3 0 62 15 W 9 15 4 1 W32 9171 W 18 149202 V 09/11-16 3 0 61 14 W 9 1 9118 W 18 148696 V 09/11-17 3 0 60 14 W 8 1 9066 W 18 148190 V 09/11-18 0 0 62 13 W 8 13 4 1 W33 9014 W 18 147684 V 09/11-19 0 0 60 13 W 9 1 7284 W 18 115996 V 09/11-20 0 0 57 16 W 10 1 5554 W 17 84307 G 09/11-21 0 0 53 18 SW 12 18 4 1 W33 3824 W 16 52619 F 09/11-22 0 0 49 21 W 12 1 2627 W 14 35776 P 09/11-23 0 0 46 24 W 10 1 1430 W 13 18934 P 09/12-00 0 0 44 27 W 10 16 5 1 W36 233 W 10 2091 P 09/12-01 0 0 42 29 W 12 1 205 W 12 1951 P 09/12-02 0 0 40 31 W 13 1 178 W 12 1811 P 09/12-03 0 0 39 32 W 14 22 5 1 W33 150 W 13 1671 P 09/12-04 0 0 38 33 W 14 1 144 W 14 1654 P 09/12-05 0 0 37 33 W 14 1 137 W 14 1637 P 09/12-06 0 0 37 32 W 14 22 5 1 W30 131 W 14 1620 P 09/12-07 0 0 39 29 W 14 1 523 W 17 9410 P 09/12-08 0 0 42 25 W 14 1 915 W 20 17201 P 09/12-09 0 0 50 18 W 14 22 5 1 W24 1307 W 22 24991 P 09/12-10 0 0 55 15 W 13 1 2959 W 20 45520 F 09/12-11 0 0 57 14 W 12 1 4610 W 18 66048 G 09/12-12 14 0 60 13 W 10 10 5 1 W24 6262 W 16 86577 G 09/12-13 14 0 61 12 W 9 1 7403 W 15 98018 G 09/12-14 14 0 62 12 W 9 1 8543 W 15 109459 V 09/12-15 14 0 63 12 W 8 8 3 1 W26 9684 W 14 120900 V 09/12-16 14 0 62 12 W 7 1 9404 W 13 107599 V 09/12-17 14 0 61 13 W 7 1 9125 W 12 94298 G 09/12-18 14 0 61 13 W 6 6 3 1 W24 8845 W 10 80998 G 09/12-19 14 0 59 15 W 5 1 6675 W 8 56847 F 09/12-20 14 0 56 17 W 3 1 4504 SW 6 32696 P 09/12-21 14 0 55 19 SW 3 3 2 1 W24 2334 SW 5 8545 P 09/12-22 14 0 53 22 SW 3 1 1651 SW 5 6094 P 09/12-23 14 0 52 24 SW 5 1 968 S 5 3643 P 09/13-00 33 0 50 27 SW 6 6 2 1 W26 285 S 5 1192 P 09/13-01 33 0 49 29 SW 6 1 252 S 6 1155 P 09/13-02 33 0 48 30 SW 7 1 218 SW 6 1118 P 09/13-03 33 0 47 30 SW 7 7 2 1 W30 185 SW 7 1081 P 09/13-04 33 0 47 30 SW 7 1 182 SW 7 1051 P 09/13-05 33 0 47 29 W 7 1 179 W 7 1022 P 09/13-06 33 0 46 29 W 7 7 2 1 W26 175 W 7 992 P 09/13-07 33 0 48 28 W 6 1 1004 W 7 6235 P 09/13-08 33 0 50 26 SW 5 1 1833 W 7 11477 P 09/13-09 33 0 54 23 SW 3 3 2 1 W25 2662 W 7 16720 P 09/13-10 33 0 58 19 SW 3 1 5014 W 9 45476 F 09/13-11 33 0 59 17 SW 3 1 7366 W 10 74232 G 09/13-12 45 0 61 15 SW 5 5 3 1 W26 9718 W 13 102988 V 09/13-13 45 0 62 14 SW 6 1 10177 W 12 105931 V 09/13-14 45 0 63 14 SW 7 1 10637 W 12 108874 V 09/13-15 45 0 63 13 SW 7 7 3 1 W18 11096 W 12 111817 V 09/13-16 45 0 63 13 SW 7 1 10813 W 12 108478 V 09/13-17 45 0 62 14 SW 6 1 10529 W 12 105140 V 09/13-18 45 0 62 15 SW 6 6 3 1 W15 10245 W 12 101801 V 09/13-19 45 0 59 18 W 6 1 09/13-20 45 0 56 22 W 6 1 09/13-21 45 0 55 25 NW 6 6 1 09/13-22 45 0 53 28 W 5 1 09/13-23 45 0 52 30 W 5 1 09/14-00 30 0 50 33 W 5 5 1 09/14-01 30 0 49 34 W 6 1 09/14-02 30 0 48 35 W 8 1 09/14-03 30 0 47 35 W 9 9 1 09/14-04 30 0 47 34 W 9 1 09/14-05 30 0 46 33 W 9 1 09/14-06 30 0 46 33 W 8 8 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...FIRE OPERATIONS REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100910.COWCR.01/BOU