FNUS75 KBOU 140941 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 330 AM MDT TUE SEP 14 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... .DISCUSSION... TODAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASED WEST WINDS. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY BUT STILL QUITE DRY AND WINDY. THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MAY TURN UPSLOPE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FIRE AS COOLER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE FIRE AREA IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE DRIER AIR HOWEVER...AND WEST WINDS ALOFT IN WARM DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY...BUT GRADUALLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-73. MIN HUMIDITY........14-18%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 3-6 MPH BECOMING UPSLOPE/ UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 11 THOUSAND FT AGL BY 1300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD. EXCELLENT AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-50. MAX HUMIDITY........37-47%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-14 MPH INCREASING TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AFTER 2400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 MPH INCREASING TO 25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 2100 AND 2000 FT AGL BY 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1500...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-66. MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 1100 AND 10 THOUSAND FT AGL BY 1300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0800...GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/14-03 10 0 49 34 S 6 6 3 1 SW22 218 SW 5 815 P 09/14-04 15 0 48 36 SW 8 14 1 215 SW 6 1167 P 09/14-05 20 0 47 38 SW 10 1 212 W 8 1519 P 09/14-06 10 0 47 38 W 13 21 3 1 W24 209 W 10 1872 P 09/14-07 10 0 48 37 W 13 1 1614 W 12 17085 P 09/14-08 10 0 51 35 W 12 1 3020 SW 12 32298 P 09/14-09 10 0 54 31 W 10 16 3 1 SW23 4426 SW 13 47511 F 09/14-10 15 0 58 27 SW 9 1 6770 SW 13 77816 G 09/14-11 15 0 62 23 SW 8 1 9115 SW 14 108121 V 09/14-12 19 0 65 21 SW 8 13 3 1 SW25 11459 SW 14 138426 V 09/14-13 21 0 66 19 SW 9 1 12227 SW 15 165098 E 09/14-14 25 0 67 19 S 10 1 12996 SW 17 191771 E 09/14-15 27 0 68 18 S 12 18 3 1 W25 13764 SW 18 218444 E 09/14-16 27 0 68 18 SW 12 1 13224 SW 20 221239 E 09/14-17 27 0 67 19 SW 13 1 12685 W 21 224034 E 09/14-18 44 0 66 19 W 13 21 3 1 W31 12146 W 22 226829 E 09/14-19 44 0 64 21 W 14 1 9443 W 21 173891 E 09/14-20 44 0 60 25 W 16 1 6741 W 20 120952 V 09/14-21 44 0 56 28 W 16 26 3 1 W31 4038 W 20 68013 G 09/14-22 44 0 54 32 W 16 1 2802 W 17 46608 F 09/14-23 44 0 52 34 W 15 1 1566 W 15 25203 P 09/15-00 35 0 50 37 W 15 24 3 1 W25 329 W 14 3798 P 09/15-01 35 0 48 40 W 16 1 289 W 14 3488 P 09/15-02 35 0 46 43 W 17 1 248 W 15 3179 P 09/15-03 35 0 45 45 W 18 30 3 1 W35 207 W 16 2869 P 09/15-04 35 0 44 47 W 20 1 201 W 16 2887 P 09/15-05 35 0 43 49 W 20 1 195 W 17 2905 P 09/15-06 8 0 43 50 W 20 31 3 1 W41 188 W 18 2922 P 09/15-07 8 0 46 45 W 21 1 1874 W 23 51699 F 09/15-08 8 0 49 42 W 22 1 3560 W 28 100476 V 09/15-09 19 0 53 39 W 24 39 3 1 W47 5246 W 32 149253 V 09/15-10 19 0 56 34 W 23 1 7366 W 32 209318 E 09/15-11 19 0 58 30 W 21 1 9486 W 32 269384 E 09/15-12 11 0 60 26 W 20 31 4 1 W51 11605 W 32 329450 E 09/15-13 11 0 61 24 W 21 1 11739 W 30 308730 E 09/15-14 11 0 62 22 W 22 1 11872 W 28 288009 E 09/15-15 34 0 62 20 W 22 35 5 1 W39 12005 W 25 267289 E 09/15-16 34 0 62 20 W 21 1 11528 W 23 233150 E 09/15-17 34 0 61 21 W 18 1 11050 W 21 199011 E 09/15-18 15 0 61 22 W 16 25 5 1 W30 10572 W 18 164872 E 09/15-19 15 0 58 25 W 14 1 8786 W 15 123882 V 09/15-20 15 0 55 29 NW 12 1 6999 W 13 82893 G 09/15-21 15 0 54 32 NW 9 15 3 1 W26 5212 W 9 41903 F 09/15-22 15 0 52 36 W 7 1 4108 W 9 32706 P 09/15-23 15 0 51 38 W 6 1 3004 SW 9 23509 P 09/16-00 16 0 50 41 SW 6 6 2 1 W24 1900 SW 9 14311 P 09/16-01 16 0 49 42 SW 6 1 1482 SW 8 11012 P 09/16-02 16 0 48 43 W 7 1 1065 SW 8 7712 P 09/16-03 16 0 47 44 W 8 13 2 1 W24 648 W 8 4412 P 09/16-04 16 0 47 44 W 9 1 525 W 8 3567 P 09/16-05 16 0 47 43 W 9 1 402 W 8 2721 P 09/16-06 12 0 46 42 W 9 15 3 1 W24 279 W 8 1876 P 09/16-07 12 0 47 38 W 8 1 1338 W 10 16317 P 09/16-08 12 0 49 34 W 8 1 2398 W 13 30758 P 09/16-09 12 0 52 29 W 7 7 4 1 W25 3457 W 15 45199 F 09/16-10 12 0 55 25 W 7 1 5288 W 17 83648 G 09/16-11 12 0 56 23 W 8 1 7120 W 18 122097 V 09/16-12 13 0 57 21 W 8 13 5 1 W26 8951 W 21 160546 E 09/16-13 13 0 58 21 W 8 1 9160 W 20 160011 E 09/16-14 13 0 58 21 W 8 1 9369 W 20 159476 E 09/16-15 13 0 59 21 W 8 13 5 1 W24 9578 W 20 158940 E 09/16-16 13 0 58 21 W 8 1 8306 W 18 135203 V 09/16-17 13 0 58 23 W 9 1 7033 W 18 111466 V 09/16-18 7 0 57 23 W 9 15 4 1 W18 5760 W 17 87729 G 09/16-19 7 0 55 26 W 9 1 4159 W 16 62013 G 09/16-20 7 0 53 28 W 8 1 2557 W 14 36297 P 09/16-21 7 0 52 29 W 8 13 4 1 W15 956 W 13 10581 P 09/16-22 7 0 51 31 W 8 1 716 W 12 7662 P 09/16-23 7 0 51 32 W 8 1 477 W 10 4743 P 09/17-00 5 0 49 34 W 8 13 4 1 W18 237 W 9 1824 P 09/17-01 5 0 48 34 W 8 1 218 W 9 1649 P 09/17-02 5 0 48 34 W 8 1 198 W 8 1474 P 09/17-03 5 0 47 34 W 8 13 3 1 W22 179 W 8 1298 P 09/17-04 5 0 47 34 W 8 1 178 W 8 1288 P 09/17-05 5 0 46 33 W 7 1 177 W 8 1278 P 09/17-06 18 0 46 33 W 7 7 3 1 W21 177 W 8 1268 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...FIRE OPERATIONS REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100913.COWCR.01/BOU