FNUS75 KBOU 132004 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR RESERVOIR RD FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 200 PM MDT MON SEP 13 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AIRMASS TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ON THURSDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....86. MIN HUMIDITY........8%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. ON RIDGETOPS...NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH. GUSTS TO 18 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......15400-16400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....52. MAX HUMIDITY........38%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 8-13 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN WEST 6-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST AROUND 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......15400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1600. MAX TEMPERATURE.....83. MIN HUMIDITY........18%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST 8-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL AFTER 1000 UNTIL 1100...THEN 7800 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 12200-13200 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 10200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100. GOOD AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR RESERVOIR RD FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/13-13 33 0 84 9 E 5 1 14429 W 14 174761 E 09/13-14 33 0 86 8 E 6 1 15660 W 14 196451 E 09/13-15 42 0 87 8 E 6 6 5 1 W18 16892 W 15 218141 E 09/13-16 42 0 86 9 E 6 1 16425 W 13 187216 E 09/13-17 42 0 84 12 E 6 1 15958 W 12 156290 E 09/13-18 42 0 84 13 E 6 6 5 1 W10 15491 W 9 125365 V 09/13-19 42 0 82 15 NE 8 1 10645 W 8 85477 G 09/13-20 42 0 77 16 NW 9 1 5799 NW 8 45590 F 09/13-21 38 0 73 18 W 12 17 5 1 NW 7 953 N 7 5702 P 09/13-22 38 0 69 20 W 12 1 703 NW 8 4357 P 09/13-23 38 0 66 22 W 12 1 452 NW 9 3012 P 09/14-00 42 0 63 25 W 12 17 5 1 W10 202 NW 9 1667 P 09/14-01 42 0 61 28 W 12 1 176 NW 10 1493 P 09/14-02 42 0 58 31 W 13 1 150 W 10 1320 P 09/14-03 15 0 56 33 W 13 20 5 1 W17 125 W 10 1146 P 09/14-04 15 0 55 35 W 13 1 121 W 10 1078 P 09/14-05 15 0 54 37 W 13 1 116 W 10 1009 P 09/14-06 16 0 54 38 W 12 17 4 1 W14 112 W 9 941 P 09/14-07 16 0 56 36 W 9 1 215 W 7 893 P 09/14-08 16 0 60 32 S 6 1 318 SW 5 845 P 09/14-09 16 0 67 26 S 2 2 5 1 W10 421 S 2 797 P 09/14-10 16 0 73 22 SE 2 1 4088 S 3 17669 P 09/14-11 16 0 76 21 SE 5 1 7756 SW 5 34542 P 09/14-12 57 0 79 19 SE 7 7 5 1 W10 11424 W 6 51414 F 09/14-13 57 0 80 19 SE 8 1 12266 SW 6 68857 G 09/14-14 57 0 82 18 SE 9 1 13109 SW 7 86300 G 09/14-15 57 0 83 18 SE 10 10 6 1 W14 13951 SW 8 103742 V 09/14-16 57 0 82 18 SE 10 1 12075 SW 9 91090 G 09/14-17 57 0 80 20 SE 9 1 10200 S 9 78437 G 09/14-18 57 10 80 20 W 12 17 4 2 W17 6549 W 16 94236 G 09/14-19 57 10 74 24 W 13 2 4433 W 16 63655 G 09/14-20 57 10 69 29 W 14 2 2316 W 15 33073 P 09/14-21 57 10 66 32 W 14 21 4 2 SW18 200 W 14 2491 P 09/14-22 57 10 64 35 W 14 2 172 W 14 2142 P 09/14-23 57 10 62 38 W 14 2 143 W 15 1793 P 09/15-00 33 0 58 44 W 14 21 5 1 SW18 115 W 15 1444 P 09/15-01 33 0 56 47 W 14 1 107 W 14 1319 P 09/15-02 33 0 53 51 W 14 1 99 W 14 1193 P 09/15-03 33 0 52 54 W 14 21 4 1 SW20 90 W 14 1068 P 09/15-04 33 0 51 54 W 14 1 91 W 14 1053 P 09/15-05 33 0 51 54 W 15 1 92 W 13 1037 P 09/15-06 33 0 50 54 W 14 21 4 1 W33 93 W 13 1022 P 09/15-07 33 0 53 48 W 10 1 147 W 10 1043 P 09/15-08 33 0 58 39 W 7 1 202 W 7 1064 P 09/15-09 33 0 64 30 NW 5 5 4 1 W35 257 NW 5 1084 P 09/15-10 33 0 71 24 NW 6 1 4360 W 10 81887 G 09/15-11 33 0 74 22 W 8 1 8464 W 16 162689 E 09/15-12 50 10 77 20 W 12 17 3 2 W28 12567 W 22 243491 E 09/15-13 50 10 79 19 W 14 2 12898 W 23 259905 E 09/15-14 50 10 80 18 W 15 2 13229 W 24 276320 E 09/15-15 50 10 81 17 W 15 23 3 2 W24 13560 W 25 292735 E 09/15-16 50 10 80 17 W 14 2 13293 W 23 264332 E 09/15-17 50 10 78 19 NW 13 2 13026 W 21 235930 E 09/15-18 50 10 78 19 NW 12 17 3 2 W18 12759 W 18 207527 E 09/15-19 50 10 73 23 NW 10 2 9204 NW 16 145709 V 09/15-20 50 10 68 27 NW 9 2 5648 NW 14 83891 G 09/15-21 50 10 66 29 NW 8 8 2 2 W22 2092 N 13 22072 P 09/15-22 50 10 63 31 W 7 2 2096 NW 9 15819 P 09/15-23 50 10 61 33 SW 6 2 2100 W 6 9567 P 09/16-00 31 0 58 37 SW 6 6 2 1 W26 2105 SW 2 3314 P 09/16-01 31 0 56 41 SW 6 1 1724 SW 2 3544 P 09/16-02 31 0 54 45 W 6 1 1343 SW 3 3774 P 09/16-03 31 0 52 48 W 6 6 3 1 W26 962 SW 5 4003 P 09/16-04 31 0 52 50 W 6 1 903 SW 5 3865 P 09/16-05 31 0 51 51 W 6 1 844 SW 5 3728 P 09/16-06 31 0 51 52 W 6 6 3 1 W26 785 SW 6 3590 P 09/16-07 31 0 53 47 SW 6 1 1413 SW 6 7199 P 09/16-08 31 0 57 41 S 5 1 2042 W 6 10808 P 09/16-09 31 0 62 33 SE 5 5 3 1 NW22 2670 W 6 14418 P 09/16-10 31 0 68 26 SE 6 1 4085 W 7 24652 P 09/16-11 31 0 70 24 SE 6 1 5501 W 7 34887 P 09/16-12 44 0 73 21 SE 7 7 3 1 W21 6916 W 8 45121 F 09/16-13 44 0 74 20 SE 7 1 7175 W 8 46678 F 09/16-14 44 0 75 19 SE 7 1 7433 W 7 48235 F 09/16-15 44 0 76 18 SE 7 7 3 1 W22 7691 SW 7 49791 F 09/16-16 44 0 76 18 SE 6 1 6860 SW 7 43749 F 09/16-17 44 0 74 19 SE 6 1 6028 SW 7 37706 P 09/16-18 44 0 74 20 SE 5 5 3 1 W22 5196 SW 7 31664 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER/ENTREKIN REQUESTED BY...MIKE SCOFIELD - COMM SPEC REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100913.RESER.02/BOU