FNUS75 KGJT 140418
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHAFFEE RX...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1018 PM MDT MON SEP 13 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1745 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY FOR CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN BRUSHES NORTHWEST COLORADO TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES OVER
MONDAY'S...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DECREASING. COOLER AND
LESS DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY.

...FORECAST PARAMETERS FOR 7000 FEET ELEVATION...


.TUESDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (30-40%) IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-84 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-16%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY. AFTER 1300 WEST
                    8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS WILL
                    BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT TIMES.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN IMPROVING TO EXCELLENT
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL BEFORE 1000...THEN INCREASING TO
                    11600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........50-55%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5300-37000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-81 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING WEST. INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH AFTER
                    1300 WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN IMPROVING TO VERY GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL BEFORE 1000...THEN INCREASING TO
                    11000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...MONTROSE FIRE  DAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100913.CHAFF.01/GJT