FNUS75 KRIW 131940
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELBO WEST RX...TIDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
140 PM MDT MON SEP 13 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1320 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHTNING
STRIKE. EXPECT FOR SOME CLOUDS TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
A STRONGER WEATHER FEATURE NOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OUT AT 136W WILL SWING
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED LATE DAY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LIPSON

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 1900. ONLY AN OUTSIDE
                    CHANCE OF A LIGHTNING STRIKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69.
MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200-9200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (87200 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-73 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH FROM THE EAST. THEN SOUTHEAST
                    4 TO 7 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000-7000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1400 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 12
                    TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (75000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (10900
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) BY 1400.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
                    AFTER 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66.
MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5-9 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH
                    AFTER 1300. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.4 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6900-7900 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (79000
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 40. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LIPSON
REQUESTED BY...FEMO
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100913.ELBOW.01/RIW