FNUS76 KPQR 142309
FWSPQR

SPOT FORECAST FOR SCOTT MOUNTAIN FIRE...FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
409 PM PDT TUE SEP 14 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1521 PDT ON SEPTEMBER 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OREGON
TODAY...YIELDING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRE AREA. A
FAIRLY DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE LOW CLOUDS TO BANK UP AGAINST
THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD NOT BE QUITE DEEP ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE HIGHER CASCADES
DIRECTLY. WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE LARGELY TERRAIN DRIVEN
DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.

A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE...AND WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE COAST WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY INLAND OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PUSHING A SERIES OF WET
DISTURBANCES ONSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF EACH
DISTURBANCE IS UNCERTAIN...THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
WETTING RAINS WILL ACCUMULATE OVER THE FIRE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE FIRE AREA.

CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN (CWR) 0.25 INCHES OR GREATER.
FORECAST WINDS ARE 10 MINUTE AVERAGES 20 FT ABOVE VEGETATION.
THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS.
                    A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (%).............LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MID TO UPPER 60S RIDGES...LOWER TO MID 70S
                    LOWER ELEVATIONS.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE 1-5 MPH EARLY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    3-7 MPH BY AFTERNOON. GUSTS 10-14 MPH DEVELOPING
                    AFTER 1300.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH...INCREASING TO
                    10-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL HAINES....4 (LOW).


TIME (PDT)      10 AM      NOON      2 PM      4 PM      6 PM

TEMP............55-60      64-70     68-74     66-72     61-66
RH (%)..........70-80      45-55     35-45     37-45     55-65
20 FT WIND......UPSLP 1-3  SW 1-3    SW 2-4    SW 3-6    SW 2-5
   MAX GUST.....  6          6         10        13        12

***FORECAST WIND IS FOR RIDGE-TOPS. EXPECT UP-SLOPE CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. USE THE APPROPRIATE WIND REDUCTION FACTOR FOR THE AREA
OF CONCERN.***



.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPING.
CWR (%).............10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-52.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........RIDGETOPS - SOUTHWEST 3-7 MPH. GUSTS 10-15 MPH.
                    ELSEWHERE - SOUTHWEST 2-5 MPH EARLY...BECOMING
                                DRAINAGE 0-3 MPH BY 2100.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST 12-22 MPH.
MID-LEVEL HAINES....4 (LOW).


.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
CWR (%).............10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........RIDGETOPS - SOUTHWEST 3-7 MPH. GUSTS 10-15 MPH.
                    ELSEWHERE - UPSLOPE 2-6 MPH...TENDING MORE
                     SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 10 MPH
                     DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH...DECREASING SOUTH 6-12 MPH
                     DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL HAINES....4 (LOW).


$$
FORECASTER...WEAGLE
REQUESTED BY...HEIDI GILLESPIE
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100914.SCOTT.01/PQR