FNUS73 KUNR 142112
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR PCK RX 1420...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
312 PM MDT TUE SEP 14 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...SMOKE DISPERSAL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE
BY MID AFTERNOON TO UP TO 15 MPH. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
SITE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 75.
RH..................MIN 46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 8 TO 13 MPH
                    IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 TO 3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........67 AT IGNITION...MIN 40.
RH..................54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 8 TO 12 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 6
                    TO 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................37 PERCENT INCREASING TO 52 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 4.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 TO 600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AND CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 65.
RH..................MIN 54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................38 PERCENT DECREASING TO 22 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 TO 4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO 23 TO 26
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...CALDERON
REQUESTED BY...POLLECK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100914.PCKRX.02/UNR