FNUS73 KUNR 141257
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR PCK...GREAT PLAINS DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
657 AM MDT TUE SEP 14 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 600 PM THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MAY BE SEVERE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY BY MIDNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........48 AT IGNITION...MAX 76.
RH..................68 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 1 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH
                    AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 TO 3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 1 TO
                    9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    SOUTH 13 TO 17 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 41.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST 6 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................52 PERCENT INCREASING TO 67 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 4.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 TO 600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 2 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 64.
RH..................MIN 62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH 9 TO 17 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................44 PERCENT DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 TO 3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    12 TO 21 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...MS
REQUESTED BY...POLLECK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100914.PCK__.01/UNR