FNUS73 KUNR 151919
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR PCK RX 1245...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
119 PM MDT WED SEP 15 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE BURN SITE THURSDAY SOMETIME AROUND MID AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER TEN THOUSAND FEET AND WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS TO RESULT IN EXCELLENT SMOKE
DISPERSAL.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 68.
RH..................MIN 48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 12 TO 18 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 TO 1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 42.
RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 TO 900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........62 AT IGNITION...MAX 76.
RH..................48 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST 14 TO 16 MPH IN THE MID AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 11 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1...THEN 2 AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 TO 11000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 35 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT.

$$
FORECASTER...CALDERON
REQUESTED BY...KARCHUT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100915.PCKRX.01/UNR