FNUS75 KPUB 161840
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK MOUNTAIN P9 P10E...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1240 PM MDT THU SEP 16 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS PUSHING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
FROM THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...PRODUCING PREDOMINANTLY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BURN AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS
ARE NOT FORECAST TO  BECOME TOO STRONG...BUT AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20
MPH SHOULD BE EXPECTED. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE STATE.

SYNOPSIS FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT THAT IS FLIRTING WITH THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON THE BURN
AREA...REGARDLESS OF THE RESULTING POSITION. THEREFORE...LOOK FOR
CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS
TO 20 MPH.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (34 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-16 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 17
                    MPH UNTIL 1900.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (38 PERCENT) UNTIL 2200...THEN
                    CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46F.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH DEVELOPING AFTER
                    2000.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 11 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH FROM 0700 UNTIL
                    1000...THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5-8 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    15-20 MPH AFTER 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 11500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    VERY GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...MOORE
REQUESTED BY...DENNIS PAGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100916.BLACK.02/PUB