FNUS75 KBOU 190338 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR 4 MILE FIRE...COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 936 PM MDT SAT SEP 18 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SATURDAYS COOLER AND MORE MOIST WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. IN FACT...THE DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE BURN SITE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO LATE THIS SATURDAY EVENING. AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH ONLY POOR RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONFORM TO NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS ON SUNDAY AS FLOW ALOFT REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWER OR STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-50. MAX HUMIDITY........49-54%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-83. MIN HUMIDITY........10%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-12 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN SOUTHEAST. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO 9400-10600 FT AGL BY 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .SUNDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-54. MAX HUMIDITY........35-39%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12-21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10800 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL BY 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW DRY...AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-84. MIN HUMIDITY........14-16%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 13-23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN INCREASING TO 12800-13800 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN BECOMING EXCELLENT BY 1000. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. COOLER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR 4 MILE FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/18-21 1 0 57 57 SW 7 7 4 1 W25 1234 W 14 13897 P 09/18-22 1 0 57 44 W 8 1 897 W 14 10082 P 09/18-23 1 0 57 36 W 9 1 559 W 14 6267 P 09/19-00 1 0 56 33 W 9 12 5 1 W20 222 W 13 2452 P 09/19-01 1 0 55 33 W 9 1 190 W 14 2212 P 09/19-02 1 0 53 34 W 10 1 159 W 15 1973 P 09/19-03 1 0 52 34 W 10 15 5 1 W21 127 W 16 1733 P 09/19-04 1 0 51 36 W 10 1 121 W 15 1537 P 09/19-05 1 0 49 38 W 10 1 115 W 14 1342 P 09/19-06 1 0 49 39 W 10 15 5 1 W22 109 W 13 1146 P 09/19-07 1 0 51 37 W 9 1 205 W 12 2109 P 09/19-08 1 0 55 32 W 9 1 301 W 13 3071 P 09/19-09 0 0 59 27 W 8 10 5 1 W22 398 W 12 4034 P 09/19-10 0 0 65 23 SW 7 1 2424 W 14 34309 P 09/19-11 0 0 71 19 SE 6 1 4451 W 16 64585 G 09/19-12 0 0 75 16 E 6 6 5 1 W13 6478 W 17 94860 G 09/19-13 0 0 77 14 E 7 1 7613 W 16 100869 V 09/19-14 0 0 79 13 E 8 1 8747 W 15 106878 V 09/19-15 10 0 79 12 SE 8 8 5 1 SW14 9882 SW 14 112887 V 09/19-16 10 0 80 11 SE 7 1 10038 SW 13 109166 V 09/19-17 10 0 79 11 SW 6 1 10194 SW 12 105444 V 09/19-18 11 0 77 11 SW 5 5 4 1 SW16 10350 SW 12 101723 V 09/19-19 11 0 74 13 SW 6 1 7008 SW 10 68767 G 09/19-20 11 0 70 16 W 8 1 3667 W 10 35811 P 09/19-21 11 0 66 21 W 12 17 4 1 S21 325 W 10 2855 P 09/19-22 11 0 64 25 W 13 1 284 W 12 2775 P 09/19-23 11 0 62 26 W 14 1 242 W 14 2695 P 09/20-00 11 0 60 29 W 15 24 5 1 SW25 200 W 15 2615 P 09/20-01 11 0 58 31 W 16 1 184 W 16 2463 P 09/20-02 11 0 56 33 W 16 1 168 W 16 2310 P 09/20-03 11 0 55 34 W 16 25 6 1 SW26 152 W 16 2157 P 09/20-04 11 0 55 36 W 17 1 152 W 17 2244 P 09/20-05 11 0 54 36 W 17 1 151 W 18 2331 P 09/20-06 31 2 54 37 W 17 28 5 1 SW24 151 W 18 2418 P 09/20-07 31 2 56 35 W 17 1 1418 W 23 36764 P 09/20-08 31 2 61 30 W 16 1 2686 W 26 71110 G 09/20-09 31 2 67 24 W 15 24 5 1 SW22 3953 W 31 105457 V 09/20-10 31 2 73 20 W 16 1 6116 W 30 158292 E 09/20-11 31 2 75 19 W 18 1 8278 W 30 211127 E 09/20-12 57 10 78 17 W 20 31 5 2 SW26 10441 W 30 263963 E 09/20-13 57 10 80 17 W 20 2 11536 W 29 277124 E 09/20-14 57 10 81 17 W 18 2 12632 SW 28 290285 E 09/20-15 57 10 81 16 W 18 29 5 2 SW31 13727 SW 25 303447 E 09/20-16 57 10 80 17 W 18 2 12865 W 28 298505 E 09/20-17 57 10 79 19 W 18 2 12003 W 29 293564 E 09/20-18 38 10 78 19 W 18 30 5 2 SW35 11141 W 30 288622 E 09/20-19 38 10 71 23 W 20 2 7884 W 31 205518 E 09/20-20 38 10 65 27 W 20 2 4627 W 32 122414 V 09/20-21 38 10 62 29 W 20 31 4 2 SW24 1370 W 33 39310 P 09/20-22 38 10 59 31 W 21 2 996 W 31 28190 P 09/20-23 38 10 57 33 W 23 2 622 W 30 17071 P 09/21-00 21 9 53 38 W 23 37 3 1 SW26 248 W 28 5951 P 09/21-01 21 9 51 41 W 20 1 214 W 22 4402 P 09/21-02 21 9 49 44 W 15 1 182 W 16 2853 P 09/21-03 21 9 47 47 W 10 16 3 1 W45 149 W 10 1305 P 09/21-04 21 9 46 50 W 9 1 148 W 9 1240 P 09/21-05 21 9 45 53 W 10 1 147 W 9 1174 P 09/21-06 27 9 45 56 W 10 16 4 1 W51 146 W 9 1109 P 09/21-07 27 9 48 52 SW 9 1 1221 SW 8 8392 P 09/21-08 27 9 50 48 S 7 1 2296 SW 8 15675 P 09/21-09 27 9 55 40 SE 6 6 3 1 W52 3371 SW 8 22958 P 09/21-10 27 9 60 33 SE 6 1 4575 SW 12 52701 F 09/21-11 27 9 62 30 SE 5 1 5779 SW 15 82444 G 09/21-12 35 4 64 27 SE 5 5 3 1 W44 6983 W 18 112187 V 09/21-13 35 4 65 26 SE 5 1 7203 W 18 111352 V 09/21-14 35 4 66 25 S 3 1 7422 W 17 110516 V 09/21-15 35 4 67 24 S 3 3 4 1 W35 7642 W 16 109681 V 09/21-16 35 4 66 24 S 5 1 6895 SW 15 89814 G 09/21-17 35 4 65 26 S 5 1 6148 SW 13 69948 G 09/21-18 35 4 64 27 SE 6 6 4 1 SW29 5401 SW 10 50081 F KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...MATT HISE ITC4 T REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100918.4MILE.01/BOU