FNUS75 KRIW 182204 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR BULL...IA TDC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 404 PM MDT SAT SEP 18 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1605 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE FIRE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON SUNDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS. WIND OVER THE FIRE WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE...POTENTIALLY BECOMING GUSTY. THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WIND...LOW HUMIDITY AND WARMING CONDITIONS MAY ENHANCE FIRE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE AT CRITICAL LEVELS. AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FIRE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND LOWER TEMPERATURES... AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY INTRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND THE FIRE ON MONDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...BRANHAM .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-74 BELOW 7500 FT...68-71 ABOVE 7500 FT. MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT BELOW 7500 FT...13-18 PERCENT ABOVE 7500 FT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7100-8100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (108700 KNOT-FT). .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-40 BELOW 7500 FT...33-36 ABOVE 7500 FT. MAX HUMIDITY........58-62 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BY 2300...THEN BECOMING EAST AROUND 8 MPH AFTER 0400. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE AFTER 2100... THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY 0200. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........INCREASING TO 5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AFTER 2000. MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1800-2300 FT AGL AFTER 0200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 2000...THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY 0400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR (24500 KNOT-FT) AFTER 0200. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-73 BELOW 7500 FT...67-70 ABOVE 7500 FT. MIN HUMIDITY........11-14 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......EAST 7 TO 10 MPH AND GUSTY...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AFTER 1300. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 1300. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6800-7800 FT AGL AFTER 1400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH AFTER 1300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (128400 KNOT-FT) AFTER 1300. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .MONDAY...COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...BRANHAM REQUESTED BY...SEAN CAREY REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100918.BULL_.02/RIW