FNUS75 KBOU 201032 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 432 AM MDT MON SEP 20 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS LOW HUMIDITIES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... .DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS ALOFT TO INCREASE. THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BECAUSE OF THE DRY LOW LEVELS...ANY STORM THAT FORM MAY BE DRY AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HUMIDITIES A LITTLE HIGHER. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SLOPE DRIVEN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A WESTERLY GUST UP TO 20 MPH MAY SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW MAY BE DRY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-72. MIN HUMIDITY........10-15%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDY. WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 INCREASING TO 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 32-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 9200-10200 FT AGL AFTER 1300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0700...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0800...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. A FEW MAV BE DRY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50. MAX HUMIDITY........45-55%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH SLOWLY DECREASING TO 5-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25-36 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6000-6800 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70. MIN HUMIDITY........15-22%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-8 MPH. WEST GUST UP 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 5600-6600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/20-04 14 0 60 19 SW 25 1 1680 SW 32 47197 F 09/20-05 14 0 60 19 W 28 1 1694 W 36 52339 F 09/20-06 7 0 60 19 W 31 49 4 1 S22 1707 W 39 57480 F 09/20-07 7 0 60 19 W 30 1 2694 W 37 84043 G 09/20-08 7 0 61 18 W 29 1 3681 W 36 110607 V 09/20-09 15 0 64 17 W 29 46 4 1 S23 4668 W 33 137170 V 09/20-10 15 0 65 17 W 29 1 5905 W 35 179436 E 09/20-11 15 0 65 18 W 29 1 7141 W 36 221702 E 09/20-12 49 10 65 18 W 29 46 4 2 S30 8378 W 37 263968 E 09/20-13 49 10 66 17 W 30 2 9320 W 36 292578 E 09/20-14 49 10 67 17 W 31 2 10262 SW 36 321187 E 09/20-15 54 10 68 17 W 31 49 5 2 S33 11204 SW 36 349797 E 09/20-16 54 10 68 17 W 29 2 9752 W 36 304128 E 09/20-17 54 10 66 20 W 25 2 8300 W 36 258460 E 09/20-18 43 10 63 23 W 22 35 5 2 SW41 6848 W 36 212791 E 09/20-19 43 10 61 26 W 21 2 5996 W 35 179625 E 09/20-20 43 10 59 28 W 20 2 5145 W 32 146460 V 09/20-21 43 10 57 30 W 20 31 3 2 SW46 4294 W 30 113294 V 09/20-22 43 10 56 31 W 18 2 3370 W 26 83934 G 09/20-23 43 10 54 32 W 18 2 2447 W 23 54573 F 09/21-00 22 2 53 33 NW 17 28 3 1 W38 1523 NW 20 25212 P 09/21-01 22 2 51 34 W 16 1 1106 W 16 17679 P 09/21-02 22 2 50 36 W 14 1 689 W 14 10146 P 09/21-03 22 2 49 38 SW 13 13 3 1 W48 271 W 12 2612 P 09/21-04 22 2 48 41 SW 12 1 271 SW 10 2544 P 09/21-05 22 2 47 43 SW 12 1 270 SW 10 2477 P 09/21-06 20 8 47 46 SW 12 18 3 1 W51 270 SW 10 2409 P 09/21-07 20 8 47 45 SW 12 1 407 SW 12 4240 P 09/21-08 20 8 47 43 SW 12 1 544 SW 13 6071 P 09/21-09 20 8 47 42 SW 13 20 3 1 W41 681 SW 14 7902 P 09/21-10 20 8 46 43 SW 13 1 2206 W 17 45477 F 09/21-11 20 8 50 36 W 13 1 3730 W 22 83053 G 09/21-12 22 2 53 32 W 13 21 5 1 W36 5255 W 26 120630 V 09/21-13 22 2 56 29 W 13 1 5884 W 25 127215 V 09/21-14 22 2 57 28 W 13 1 6513 W 24 133800 V 09/21-15 22 2 58 28 W 13 20 3 1 W32 7143 W 23 140385 V 09/21-16 22 2 57 28 W 13 1 6204 W 21 115560 V 09/21-17 22 2 57 29 W 12 1 5266 W 20 90735 G 09/21-18 28 2 57 30 W 12 18 3 1 SW22 4328 W 17 65909 G 09/21-19 28 2 53 34 W 12 1 2983 W 15 44729 F 09/21-20 28 2 51 38 SW 10 1 1639 SW 12 23549 P 09/21-21 28 2 48 41 SW 10 16 3 1 SW25 294 SW 9 2369 P 09/21-22 28 2 46 44 SW 9 1 263 SW 9 2057 P 09/21-23 28 2 45 47 SW 9 1 232 W 8 1746 P 09/22-00 18 4 43 50 SW 9 15 3 1 SW31 201 W 8 1434 P 09/22-01 18 4 42 51 SW 10 1 198 W 9 1551 P 09/22-02 18 4 41 51 SW 10 1 195 W 10 1669 P 09/22-03 18 4 40 52 SW 12 18 2 1 SW31 192 SW 10 1786 P 09/22-04 18 4 40 53 SW 13 1 184 SW 12 1803 P 09/22-05 18 4 39 53 SW 14 1 176 SW 12 1820 P 09/22-06 46 4 39 52 SW 14 22 2 1 SW28 168 SW 13 1836 P 09/22-07 46 4 40 49 SW 14 1 365 SW 13 4049 P 09/22-08 46 4 42 44 SW 13 1 562 SW 13 6262 P 09/22-09 46 4 45 38 SW 12 18 2 1 SW29 760 SW 13 8474 P 09/22-10 46 4 49 32 SW 10 1 2565 SW 15 38112 P 09/22-11 46 4 54 27 SW 9 1 4370 SW 16 67749 G 09/22-12 56 23 58 23 SW 9 15 2 3 W37 6175 SW 18 97387 G 09/22-13 56 23 60 21 SW 9 3 6846 SW 17 104373 V 09/22-14 56 23 62 21 S 10 3 7517 SW 17 111359 V 09/22-15 56 23 62 21 S 12 18 2 3 S31 8188 S 16 118345 V 09/22-16 56 23 62 22 S 13 3 7712 S 21 137647 V 09/22-17 56 23 62 23 S 13 3 7236 S 25 156948 E 09/22-18 70 23 61 24 S 14 22 2 3 SW44 6760 S 30 176250 E 09/22-19 70 23 59 27 S 14 3 5894 S 30 152971 E 09/22-20 70 23 56 30 S 14 3 5028 SW 30 129691 V 09/22-21 70 23 55 32 SW 14 22 2 3 SW35 4162 SW 30 106411 V 09/22-22 70 23 54 34 SW 13 3 3224 SW 24 76231 G 09/22-23 70 23 53 36 SW 13 3 2286 SW 18 46051 F 09/23-00 56 21 51 38 SW 12 18 2 3 SW33 1349 SW 14 15871 P 09/23-01 56 21 50 40 SW 10 3 1116 SW 13 12724 P 09/23-02 56 21 49 40 W 9 3 883 W 13 9576 P 09/23-03 56 21 48 41 W 8 13 2 3 SW44 650 W 12 6429 P 09/23-04 56 21 48 39 NW 7 3 727 W 12 7191 P 09/23-05 56 21 48 38 NW 6 3 804 W 12 7954 P 09/23-06 50 20 47 36 NW 6 6 2 1 SW38 881 W 12 8716 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...GERALD TUZON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100919.COWCR.01/BOU