FNUS76 KMFR 182335
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR UPPER THOMAS CREEK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
435 PM PDT SAT SEP 18 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 PDT ON SEPTEMBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...WETTING RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING PRIOR TO IGNITION TIME...
...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING RAIN WEST OF THE AREA
WILL FINALLY SEND A FRONTAL BAND OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE
IGNITION TIME. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER STRONG UNTIL THE THE RAINFALL THREAT SUBSIDES SUNDAY EVENING.


.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-63.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-56 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE
                    MORNING...DECREASING TO 4-8 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FEET FT AGL LATE MORNING INCREASING TO
                    6000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH LATE
                    MORNING...INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................80 PERCENT...WITH 0.10" TO 0.20" EXPECTED.
LAL.................2.


.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY DURING THE
                    EVENING. A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING
                    THE EVENING. FOG DEVELOPING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST 1-3
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......FALLING TO 3000 FT AGL OR LESS DURING THE
                    EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL OR
                    LESS OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH EARLY EVENING...THEN
                    NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH.
CWR.................30 PERCENT...WITH 0.03"-0.09" EXPECTED.
LAL.................2.


.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING...
                    THEN PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-50 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH 0-2 MPH THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN
                    WEST-SOUTHWEST 1-3 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL OR LESS EARLY...THEN RISING TO 2000
                    FT AGL LATE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5000
                    FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 0-5 MPH EARLY...THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST
                    5-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON..
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.


$$
FORECASTER...LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...BARRY SHULLANBERGER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100919.UPPER.02/MFR