FNUS75 KPUB 192342
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK MOUNTAIN P5...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
542 PM MDT SUN SEP 19 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SURFACE PRESSURES TO FALL ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO SLOPES.  WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY RECOVER BRIEFLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH ONCE THE WINDS DEVELOP...RELATIVE HUMIDITES SHOULD
HOLD STEADY AND/OR FALL SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO
INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 28 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS MENTIONED IN A PREVIOUS SPOT FORECAST...
THE WEATHER FORECAST WILL BE CHALLENGING MONDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WHICH MAY
KEEP RH VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD REQUIRED
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...IN SPITE OF THE FACT THAT THESE STRONGER WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO MEET THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.  WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SITUATION WITH EACH FORECAST MODEL RUN
CYCLE...AND IF MODEL RUNS TREND TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS THEN FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY.  IN ADDITION...HIGH BASED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY...THOUGH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-56F.
MAX HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 500 FT AGL AFTER 2100.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 24 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(41 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-82F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-16 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 28
                    MPH AT TIMES AFTER 1000.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 9500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 0900.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.

$$
REQUESTED BY...DENNIS PAGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100919.BLACK.02/PUB