FNUS75 KRIW 191723
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BULL...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1123 AM MDT SUN SEP 19 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1115 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
DRY...WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BURN SITE
TODAY WHICH COULD MAKE FOR MORE HAZARDOUS FIRE BEHAVIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT
THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE BURN SITE BETWEEN 0700 AND 1000 MONDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL COOL OFF TEMPERATURES...ELEVATE HUMIDITY AND
INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BURN SITE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE FRONT WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT
RESULTING IN WESTERLY...INCREASED WIND OF AROUND 20 MPH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL POTENTIALLY BRING GUSTY WIND...AND
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-71 BELOW 8500 FT...65-68 ABOVE 8500 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-14 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-7 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO
                    15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AFTER 1200.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8200-9200 FT AGL AFTER 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 24
                    TO 28 MPH AFTER 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (176600 KNOT-FT) AFTER
                    1400.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-40 BELOW 8500 FT...34-38 ABOVE 8500 FT.
MAX HUMIDITY........58-62 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH...BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    4-7 MPH AFTER 2200...THEN BECOMING EAST 6-10
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH AFTER 0200.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 10
                    TO 15 MPH AFTER 0200.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH...DECREASING TO 3 AFTER
                    0400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER 0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 12 TO 17
                    MPH AFTER 0100.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR (6900 KNOT-FT) AFTER 0100.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-62 BELOW 8500 FT...54-58 ABOVE 8500 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-29 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AFTER 1200.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    AT 15-20 MPH AFTER 1200.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7000-7800 FT AGL AFTER 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 20 TO
                    25 MPH AFTER 1000.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (129600 KNOT-FT)
                    AFTER 1400.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...TOBIN KELLY
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100919.BULL_.01/RIW