FNUS75 KRIW 201013
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOWER GROS VENTRE RX...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
413 AM MDT MON SEP 20 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2100 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN WYOMING THIS MORNING...SHIFTING THE FLOW WESTERLY. THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT...BUT WONT BE
QUITE AS GUSTY AS SUNDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER AS WELL AS MORE HUMID.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE FLOW
WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RH'S.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...T.BAKER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-63.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 4 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO
                    WEST 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (50000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (125000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-33.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    20 MPH...BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 3 TO 6 MPH AROUND 2100.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH GUST TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10 MPH
                    AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (125000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (5000 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 3 TO 7 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    10 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE
                    EARLY AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE EARLY
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600-6600 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 28 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (56600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (132400 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 11 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...T.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...PEGGYFIRE
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100919.LOWER.01/RIW