FNUS75 KBOU 231041 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 441 AM MDT THU SEP 23 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL BE MOVING EAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE OVER THE FIRE THIS MORNING...BUT DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE SHOWERS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED TODAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND THE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PUSH THE WINDS DOWN INTO THE ALIGNED COW CREEK DRAINAGE. FRIDAY WILL SEE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....56. MIN HUMIDITY........28%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDY. WEST WINDS 14-29 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 36-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 6400-7400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. LAL.................2. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....43. MAX HUMIDITY........42%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST WINDS 10-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-6000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. LAL.................1. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....64. MIN HUMIDITY........18%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 10400-11400 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. LAL.................1. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .SUNDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .MONDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/23-04 88 59 46 69 W 8 1 1929 W 26 43912 F 09/23-05 88 59 46 68 W 11 1 1752 W 31 45582 F 09/23-06 53 19 44 72 W 13 24 3 2 SW43 1575 W 35 47252 F 09/23-07 53 19 44 69 W 15 2 2202 W 36 68075 G 09/23-08 53 19 45 66 W 18 2 2829 W 36 88898 G 09/23-09 48 19 45 62 W 20 28 3 2 W29 3456 W 37 109721 V 09/23-10 48 19 47 57 W 21 2 4360 W 38 145421 V 09/23-11 48 19 49 50 W 23 2 5264 W 39 181122 E 09/23-12 16 6 50 46 W 25 35 3 1 W33 6168 W 40 216822 E 09/23-13 16 6 51 43 W 25 1 6570 W 39 224856 E 09/23-14 16 6 53 40 W 26 1 6972 W 38 232889 E 09/23-15 16 6 54 38 W 26 40 3 1 W37 7374 W 38 240923 E 09/23-16 16 6 55 34 W 24 1 6937 W 37 219906 E 09/23-17 16 6 53 30 W 24 1 6500 W 35 198890 E 09/23-18 19 0 52 28 W 20 30 5 1 NW46 6064 W 33 177874 E 09/23-19 19 0 51 29 W 15 1 5128 W 33 148399 V 09/23-20 19 0 49 33 W 14 1 4193 W 32 118924 V 09/23-21 10 0 48 36 W 14 23 5 1 NW40 3258 W 31 89449 G 09/23-22 10 0 47 39 W 13 1 2616 W 30 69597 G 09/23-23 10 0 46 40 W 13 1 1974 W 28 49745 F 09/24-00 0 0 45 41 W 12 22 5 1 NW33 1332 W 25 29892 P 09/24-01 0 0 45 42 W 11 1 1129 W 24 24433 P 09/24-02 0 0 44 42 W 11 1 926 W 23 18973 P 09/24-03 0 0 44 41 W 10 21 5 1 W31 722 W 22 13513 P 09/24-04 0 0 44 41 W 10 1 637 W 21 11392 P 09/24-05 0 0 43 40 W 10 1 551 W 18 9271 P 09/24-06 0 0 43 38 W 10 20 5 1 W29 534 W 18 8350 P 09/24-07 0 0 44 36 W 11 1 1370 W 17 19134 P 09/24-08 0 0 49 30 W 11 1 2205 W 16 29917 P 09/24-09 0 0 53 25 W 10 18 5 1 W31 3041 W 15 40700 F 09/24-10 0 0 57 21 W 10 1 5007 W 17 85252 G 09/24-11 0 0 59 19 W 9 1 6973 W 20 129805 V 09/24-12 5 0 61 18 W 8 13 5 1 W38 8939 W 23 174357 E 09/24-13 5 0 62 18 W 8 1 9966 W 23 205517 E 09/24-14 5 0 63 18 W 9 1 10994 W 24 236678 E 09/24-15 5 0 64 18 W 10 16 4 1 W44 12022 W 25 267838 E 09/24-16 5 0 63 19 W 10 1 11482 W 25 251133 E 09/24-17 5 0 62 21 W 10 1 10942 W 24 234429 E 09/24-18 5 0 61 22 W 10 16 4 1 W43 10403 W 24 217724 E 09/24-19 5 0 57 25 W 12 1 7522 W 22 154192 E 09/24-20 5 0 54 29 W 14 1 4641 W 20 90660 G 09/24-21 5 0 52 30 W 14 24 4 1 NW43 1760 W 17 27128 P 09/24-22 5 0 51 32 W 16 1 1278 W 17 19697 P 09/24-23 5 0 49 33 W 17 1 796 W 17 12265 P 09/25-00 3 0 47 35 W 18 30 4 1 NW37 314 W 17 4834 P 09/25-01 3 0 46 36 W 18 1 278 W 17 4286 P 09/25-02 3 0 45 37 W 18 1 243 W 17 3738 P 09/25-03 3 0 44 38 W 18 30 4 1 NW30 207 W 17 3190 P 09/25-04 3 0 43 38 W 20 1 207 W 18 3204 P 09/25-05 3 0 43 38 W 20 1 206 W 18 3218 P 09/25-06 3 0 43 37 W 20 31 4 1 NW29 205 W 18 3232 P 09/25-07 3 0 44 34 W 18 1 1092 W 18 18226 P 09/25-08 3 0 47 30 W 16 1 1979 W 18 33221 P 09/25-09 3 0 51 25 W 14 22 4 1 NW30 2866 W 20 48216 F 09/25-10 3 0 55 21 W 12 1 4316 W 20 71499 G 09/25-11 3 0 57 20 W 10 1 5766 NW 20 94782 G 09/25-12 6 0 59 19 W 9 15 3 1 NW31 7216 NW 18 118065 V 09/25-13 6 0 60 19 W 8 1 7663 NW 17 116176 V 09/25-14 6 0 61 19 W 8 1 8110 NW 16 114286 V 09/25-15 6 0 61 20 NW 8 13 2 1 NW32 8557 NW 15 112397 V 09/25-16 6 0 61 21 NW 8 1 7824 NW 14 96038 G 09/25-17 6 0 59 23 NW 8 1 7091 NW 13 79678 G 09/25-18 6 0 59 25 NW 8 13 2 1 N35 6358 NW 12 63319 G 09/25-19 6 0 55 29 N 8 1 4448 N 10 43710 F 09/25-20 6 0 51 32 N 8 1 2538 N 9 24102 P 09/25-21 6 0 50 34 NE 8 13 2 1 N35 628 N 8 4493 P 09/25-22 6 0 48 36 N 7 1 519 N 7 3409 P 09/25-23 6 0 47 36 W 6 1 411 W 6 2325 P 09/26-00 4 0 45 39 W 5 5 2 1 N32 302 W 5 1241 P 09/26-01 4 0 43 40 W 6 1 259 W 6 1284 P 09/26-02 4 0 42 41 W 8 1 216 W 8 1326 P 09/26-03 4 0 41 42 W 9 15 3 1 N31 173 W 9 1369 P 09/26-04 4 0 41 42 NW 9 1 167 W 9 1315 P 09/26-05 4 0 40 42 NW 9 1 160 W 9 1261 P 09/26-06 4 0 40 42 NW 9 15 4 1 N29 154 NW 9 1208 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...GERALD TUZON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100922.COWCR.01/BOU