FNUS75 KRIW 221718
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BULL...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1118 AM MDT WED SEP 22 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE BURN AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WASHINGTON...OREGON AND NORTHWEST NEVADA.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM PRECIPITATION.  THE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH COLDER AND STABLE AIR MOVING IN...IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...C.BAKER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) BY 2 PM.
                    SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-27 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    10 TO 15 MPH BY 2 PM MDT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7700-8700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD(10000-140000 KNOT-FT) IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT (40-50 PERCENT).
                    NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-38.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-85 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15
                    MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 5 TO
                    10 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600-7600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500-2500 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 9 TO
                    13 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (97400 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (19100
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY BY NOON(10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-60.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-32 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500-6500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (27500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (82000
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...C.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...STRAUBURG
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100922.BULL_.01/RIW