FNUS75 KRIW 221648 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR POLE CREEK RX...USFS BTF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 1048 AM MDT WED SEP 22 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1035 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE BURN AREA THIS AFTERNOON AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WASHINGTON...OREGON AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM PRECIPITATION. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH COLDER AND STABLE AIR MOVING IN...IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...C.BAKER .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-67. MIN HUMIDITY........23-27 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH SOUTHEAST BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.25 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6000-7000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (90000 TO 140000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATE (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38. MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 11 TO 12 MPH AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 20 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE MORNING. LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.25 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-6000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1200-2200 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 21 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST EARLY IN THE MORNING. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (90000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (17800 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY NOON(10-20 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58-62. MIN HUMIDITY........26-29 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 10 TO 13 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700-5700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR IN THE MORNING THEN GOOD (80000 KNOT-FT). .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...C.BAKER REQUESTED BY...STRAUBURG REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100922.POLEC.01/RIW