FNUS75 KBOU 271014 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 414 AM MDT MON SEP 27 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP WARMER AND DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING TO GIVE AN EXTRA NORTHEASTERLY PUSH TO THE UPSLOPE/VALLEY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FIRE TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH SIMILAR HUMIDITY READINGS. ANOTHER...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO PUSH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-12 MPH OVER THE FIRE. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE SLIGHT COOLING...ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY WILL MOST LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND EXTRA CLOUD COVER. WITH THE RECENT DRY WEATHER...SHOWERS THAT COULD DEVELOP THAT DAY WOULD LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN VIRGA. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....73. MIN HUMIDITY........15%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHEAST 5-6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 8200-9200 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....50. MAX HUMIDITY........27%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6400-7400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2000. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....76. MIN HUMIDITY........11%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 6600-7600 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1500...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/27-03 1 0 55 25 W 9 15 5 1 NW13 292 W 13 3184 P 09/27-04 1 0 55 25 W 10 1 306 W 14 3587 P 09/27-05 1 0 54 26 W 10 1 319 W 14 3990 P 09/27-06 12 0 54 25 W 10 17 5 1 NW17 332 W 15 4392 P 09/27-07 12 0 55 24 NW 9 1 843 NW 15 11008 P 09/27-08 12 0 57 22 NW 9 1 1353 NW 15 17623 P 09/27-09 12 0 58 20 NW 9 16 5 1 NW18 1863 NW 15 24239 P 09/27-10 12 0 61 19 NW 9 1 4075 NW 13 39104 P 09/27-11 12 0 64 18 N 7 1 6286 NW 12 53968 F 09/27-12 19 0 66 17 N 6 6 3 1 NW23 8498 NW 9 68833 G 09/27-13 19 0 67 16 NE 6 1 8732 NW 10 75060 G 09/27-14 19 0 69 16 NE 6 1 8967 NW 10 81286 G 09/27-15 19 0 72 17 NE 6 6 2 1 N24 9202 NW 12 87513 G 09/27-16 19 0 71 18 NE 5 1 8690 NW 10 79563 G 09/27-17 19 0 69 19 E 5 1 8178 NW 10 71614 G 09/27-18 2 0 67 20 E 3 3 2 1 N23 7665 NW 9 63664 G 09/27-19 2 0 64 21 E 3 1 6260 NW 8 45881 F 09/27-20 2 0 62 22 SE 3 1 4854 W 6 28099 P 09/27-21 2 0 59 23 S 3 3 2 1 N20 3448 W 3 10317 P 09/27-22 2 0 58 24 S 3 1 2574 W 3 7861 P 09/27-23 2 0 56 25 SW 3 1 1699 W 3 5406 P 09/28-00 6 0 54 26 SW 3 3 3 1 N18 825 W 5 2950 P 09/28-01 6 0 53 26 W 5 1 620 W 5 2350 P 09/28-02 6 0 53 27 W 5 1 415 W 6 1750 P 09/28-03 6 0 52 27 W 6 6 3 1 N18 210 W 6 1150 P 09/28-04 6 0 52 27 W 7 1 195 W 7 1122 P 09/28-05 6 0 51 27 NW 8 1 179 W 7 1093 P 09/28-06 6 0 51 27 NW 8 8 4 1 N23 168 NW 7 1087 P 09/28-07 6 0 50 27 NW 7 1 609 NW 7 3370 P 09/28-08 6 0 56 22 NW 6 1 1050 NW 7 5653 P 09/28-09 6 0 62 17 NW 5 5 4 1 N24 1491 NW 6 7936 P 09/28-10 6 0 66 15 W 5 1 3206 NW 7 22553 P 09/28-11 6 0 67 15 W 5 1 4921 NW 8 37171 P 09/28-12 4 0 68 14 W 5 5 4 1 N18 6636 NW 9 51788 F 09/28-13 4 0 69 13 W 5 1 7384 NW 9 57805 F 09/28-14 4 0 71 13 W 3 1 8132 NW 9 63822 G 09/28-15 4 0 73 12 W 3 3 4 1 N14 8880 NW 9 69839 G 09/28-16 4 0 75 11 W 2 1 7320 NW 9 57188 F 09/28-17 4 0 73 13 NW 2 1 5759 NW 9 44538 F 09/28-18 4 0 68 15 N 2 2 4 1 N 8 4199 NW 9 31887 P 09/28-19 4 0 62 19 N 3 1 2874 NW 9 21850 P 09/28-20 4 0 59 22 NW 6 1 1549 NW 9 11813 P 09/28-21 4 0 55 23 W 8 8 4 1 NW 8 224 NW 9 1776 P 09/28-22 4 0 55 23 W 9 1 228 W 9 1818 P 09/28-23 4 0 56 23 W 10 1 231 W 9 1860 P 09/29-00 4 0 56 23 W 10 16 4 1 W14 235 W 9 1902 P 09/29-01 4 0 55 25 W 12 1 215 W 9 1750 P 09/29-02 4 0 54 25 W 12 1 195 W 9 1599 P 09/29-03 4 0 53 26 W 12 17 5 1 W21 175 W 9 1447 P 09/29-04 4 0 53 26 W 12 1 171 W 9 1415 P 09/29-05 4 0 53 26 W 10 1 168 W 9 1383 P 09/29-06 4 0 53 26 W 10 16 5 1 W22 165 W 9 1351 P 09/29-07 4 0 52 26 W 10 1 723 W 9 6408 P 09/29-08 4 0 58 21 W 9 1 1282 W 10 11465 P 09/29-09 4 0 63 18 W 9 14 5 1 W22 1840 W 10 16521 P 09/29-10 4 0 67 16 W 8 1 4018 W 10 33342 P 09/29-11 4 0 67 15 W 8 1 6195 W 9 50163 F 09/29-12 4 0 69 15 W 7 7 4 1 W20 8373 W 9 66984 G 09/29-13 4 0 69 15 W 6 1 9479 W 9 75832 G 09/29-14 4 0 70 15 NW 6 1 10585 W 9 84680 G 09/29-15 4 0 70 15 NW 5 5 4 1 W17 11691 W 9 93528 G 09/29-16 4 0 70 15 NW 3 1 10761 W 7 71254 G 09/29-17 4 0 69 16 N 3 1 9832 W 6 48980 F 09/29-18 4 0 64 20 N 3 3 3 1 SW15 8902 W 3 26706 P 09/29-19 4 0 58 25 N 3 1 6040 NW 5 18420 P 09/29-20 4 0 55 29 N 5 1 3179 N 6 10134 P 09/29-21 4 0 54 30 N 5 5 3 1 W21 317 NE 7 1848 P 09/29-22 4 0 54 29 NE 5 1 583 NE 7 3736 P 09/29-23 4 0 55 27 NE 6 1 849 E 7 5624 P 09/30-00 7 0 55 27 NE 6 6 3 1 W24 1115 E 8 7511 P 09/30-01 7 0 53 29 NE 6 1 965 E 7 5991 P 09/30-02 7 0 53 30 E 5 1 814 E 6 4470 P 09/30-03 7 0 52 31 E 5 5 3 1 W26 664 E 5 2949 P 09/30-04 7 0 52 31 E 5 1 589 E 5 2494 P 09/30-05 7 0 51 32 E 3 1 514 E 5 2039 P 09/30-06 7 0 52 32 E 3 3 3 1 W25 439 E 5 1584 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FIRE OPERATIONS REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100926.COWCR.01/BOU