FNUS75 KBOU 281052 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 452 AM MDT TUE SEP 28 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UTAH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO THE BURN SITE TODAY...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL CONFORM TO TYPICAL AND LIGHT DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WITH ONLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY. ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK INTO THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS WITH WINDS TURNING MORE EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TURN COOLER WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS AS FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BUILD UNDER THE RIDGE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE WEEKEND... BUT THE CHANCES OF ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS LOW. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-76. MIN HUMIDITY........11%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-9 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 3200-4200 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 7600-8600 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 5800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....50. MAX HUMIDITY........24%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-6 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN WEST 8-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-69. MIN HUMIDITY........16%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 7-12 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN NORTHEAST 6-9 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 7400-8400 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/28-04 4 0 48 41 W 9 1 183 W 8 1229 P 09/28-05 4 0 47 41 NW 9 1 170 NW 8 1171 P 09/28-06 2 0 47 39 NW 9 14 4 1 NW16 158 NW 8 1113 P 09/28-07 2 0 48 36 NW 8 1 379 NW 7 1955 P 09/28-08 2 0 54 26 NW 6 1 601 NW 6 2797 P 09/28-09 2 0 62 18 NW 5 5 5 1 N15 823 NW 5 3639 P 09/28-10 2 0 67 15 W 5 1 2737 NW 7 21104 P 09/28-11 2 0 69 15 SW 5 1 4652 NW 8 38569 P 09/28-12 2 0 71 14 SE 5 5 5 1 NW12 6566 NW 10 56034 F 09/28-13 2 0 73 13 SE 5 1 7347 W 10 65112 G 09/28-14 2 0 74 12 SE 5 1 8128 W 10 74190 G 09/28-15 2 0 74 11 S 5 5 3 1 W13 8909 W 10 83267 G 09/28-16 2 0 73 11 S 3 1 7322 W 10 68380 G 09/28-17 2 0 69 12 CALM 1 5735 W 10 53494 F 09/28-18 1 0 63 15 CALM 1 4 1 NW17 4148 NW 10 38607 P 09/28-19 1 0 58 18 SW 3 1 2840 W 10 26319 P 09/28-20 1 0 54 21 W 6 1 1533 W 9 14032 P 09/28-21 1 0 53 22 W 8 8 5 1 NW18 225 W 9 1745 P 09/28-22 1 0 53 22 W 9 1 222 W 9 1771 P 09/28-23 1 0 54 21 W 10 1 219 W 9 1797 P 09/29-00 1 0 54 22 W 10 16 5 1 NW18 217 W 9 1823 P 09/29-01 1 0 54 22 W 12 1 213 W 10 1896 P 09/29-02 1 0 53 22 W 13 1 210 W 10 1969 P 09/29-03 1 0 53 22 W 13 18 4 1 NW20 206 W 12 2042 P 09/29-04 1 0 53 22 W 13 1 195 W 12 1957 P 09/29-05 1 0 52 23 W 13 1 184 W 12 1873 P 09/29-06 4 0 52 23 W 12 17 5 1 NW22 173 W 12 1788 P 09/29-07 4 0 50 24 NW 10 1 339 W 13 3861 P 09/29-08 4 0 53 21 NW 9 1 506 NW 13 5934 P 09/29-09 4 0 57 19 N 7 7 5 1 NW20 672 NW 14 8007 P 09/29-10 4 0 60 18 N 7 1 2391 NW 12 19213 P 09/29-11 4 0 62 17 NE 7 1 4110 NW 10 30419 P 09/29-12 4 0 63 16 NE 7 7 5 1 W21 5830 NW 8 41625 F 09/29-13 4 0 65 16 NE 7 1 6823 NW 8 44756 F 09/29-14 4 0 67 16 NE 7 1 7817 NW 7 47886 F 09/29-15 4 0 66 17 NE 7 7 2 1 W30 8811 W 7 51016 F 09/29-16 4 0 62 18 NE 7 1 8432 W 6 39765 P 09/29-17 4 0 61 21 E 7 1 8053 SW 3 28514 P 09/29-18 4 0 60 23 E 7 7 2 1 W29 7675 SW 2 17262 P 09/29-19 4 0 59 23 E 7 1 6914 S 5 24108 P 09/29-20 4 0 58 24 SE 7 1 6154 SE 6 30954 P 09/29-21 4 0 57 26 SE 7 7 2 1 NW28 5394 SE 8 37800 P 09/29-22 4 0 55 28 E 7 1 4594 SE 8 31807 P 09/29-23 4 0 54 31 E 6 1 3793 SE 8 25813 P 09/30-00 6 0 53 33 NE 6 6 3 1 NW22 2992 SE 8 19820 P 09/30-01 6 0 52 34 NE 6 1 2670 S 7 17334 P 09/30-02 6 0 51 35 E 5 1 2347 S 7 14848 P 09/30-03 6 0 50 36 E 5 5 3 1 W23 2025 S 7 12362 P 09/30-04 6 0 50 37 E 5 1 1801 S 6 9942 P 09/30-05 6 0 49 37 E 3 1 1576 S 6 7522 P 09/30-06 6 0 49 38 E 3 3 4 1 W26 1352 S 5 5102 P 09/30-07 6 0 50 37 E 3 1 1631 SW 5 6602 P 09/30-08 6 0 52 36 SE 3 1 1910 SW 5 8102 P 09/30-09 6 0 55 33 SE 3 3 5 1 NW26 2189 SW 5 9602 P 09/30-10 6 0 58 29 SE 5 1 3683 W 8 30306 P 09/30-11 6 0 62 25 S 5 1 5176 W 10 51010 F 09/30-12 14 0 64 23 SW 6 6 5 1 NW22 6669 W 13 71715 G 09/30-13 14 0 66 21 SW 6 1 7494 W 13 85082 G 09/30-14 14 0 67 20 S 6 1 8319 W 14 98449 G 09/30-15 14 0 68 20 S 6 6 3 1 NW23 9144 W 14 111816 V 09/30-16 14 0 67 20 S 6 1 9112 W 14 112558 V 09/30-17 14 0 67 20 SE 6 1 9081 W 14 113300 V 09/30-18 14 0 66 20 SE 6 6 3 1 W24 9049 W 15 114042 V 09/30-19 14 0 65 21 SE 6 1 7387 W 14 90001 G 09/30-20 14 0 63 23 S 6 1 5725 W 13 65960 G 09/30-21 14 0 60 25 S 6 6 4 1 W23 4063 W 12 41919 F 09/30-22 14 0 58 27 SW 6 1 2859 W 10 28973 P 09/30-23 14 0 56 29 SW 7 1 1656 W 9 16028 P 10/01-00 11 0 55 30 SW 7 7 5 1 W21 452 W 8 3082 P 10/01-01 11 0 54 32 W 7 1 382 W 8 2602 P 10/01-02 11 0 53 33 W 8 1 313 W 8 2123 P 10/01-03 11 0 52 35 W 8 8 5 1 NW23 243 W 8 1644 P 10/01-04 11 0 51 36 W 8 1 231 W 8 1650 P 10/01-05 11 0 51 37 W 9 1 220 W 9 1657 P 10/01-06 11 0 51 37 W 9 14 5 1 NW26 209 W 9 1663 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FIRE OPERATIONS REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100927.COWCR.01/BOU