FNUS75 KGJT 270608
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALDRICH LAKES RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1208 AM MDT MON SEP 27 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE BURN SITE TODAY
AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEW WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
TERRAIN-DRIVEN. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MIXING WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 13,000 FEET MSL UNDER AN
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SMOKE DISPERSAL LOOKS TO JUST
REACH THE FAIR CATEGORY WITH AFTERNOON MAX HEATING...THEN WILL
QUICKLY COLLAPSE BACK TO POOR AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET. TUESDAY
MIXING HEIGHT DON'T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH...THUS NEVER GETTING OUT OF
THE POOR CATEGORY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS AND CUMULUS FAR
                    SOUTH.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-88 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-19%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/SOUTHEAST 1-5 MPH SHIFTING TO
                    UPSLOPE/NORTHWEST 2-8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1400...THEN FAIR (MAX OF 40,000
                    KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........30-35%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST/DOWNSLOPE WINDS 1-5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (MAX OF 4500 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-89 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-19%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 1-5 MPH SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
                    2-8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (MAX OF 35,000 KNOT-FEET).
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH SHIFTING TO WEST 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...JIM GENUNG
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100927.ALDRI.01/GJT