FNUS75 KRIW 290933
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PHELPS MORAINE...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
333 AM MDT WED SEP 29 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1955 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FIRE SITE. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...AND TERRAIN DRIVEN TODAY. SMOKE
DISPERSAL WILL REMAIN IN THE POOR CATEGORY UNTIL AROUND
1500...AND THEN BE IN THE LOW END OF FAIR...OR HIGH END OF POOR.

THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA NEXT MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON LOCATION AND
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION STILL...BUT AGREE ON COOLER CONDITIONS
MOVING INTO THE AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-81.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-14 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-5 MPH AROUND 1000.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST
                    4-8 MPH. GUSTS TO 12 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST
                    5-10 MPH AROUND 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO FAIR (42000 KNOT-FT)
                    AROUND 1500.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH
                    BY MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL
                    BY 2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH
                    BY MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-14 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...BECOMING WEST
                    SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH AROUND NOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...BECOMING WEST
                    SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH AROUND NOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO FAIR (45400 KNOT-FT)
                    IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 80.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 80.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...MARKASON
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100928.PHELP.01/RIW