FNUS75 KBOU 301158 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 558 AM MDT THU SEP 30 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A STRONG AND DRY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE COLORADO WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. A DRY CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE EASTERLY WINDS. THE LATEST COMPUTER MODEL RUNS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT SATURDAYS COLD FRONT WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. COMPUTER MODEL RUNS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW AN EXPECTED UPPER LOW LOCATED TOO FAR WEST OF COLORADO TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THE MOST LIKELY WEATHER SCENARIO THROUGH ABOUT NEXT TUESDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-72. MIN HUMIDITY........16-24%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200. WINDS WEST 4-8 MPH AFTER 1400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 7000-8000 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100. VERY GOOD AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-42. MAX HUMIDITY........38-46%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN WEST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7000-7500 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-74. MIN HUMIDITY........16-24%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 6-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN NORTH 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 11200-12200 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5-10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5-10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS 12-20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/30-05 16 0 42 57 W 3 1 346 SW 5 1434 P 09/30-06 3 0 42 55 W 3 3 3 1 W26 249 W 3 836 P 09/30-07 3 0 44 51 W 3 1 782 W 5 3850 P 09/30-08 3 0 49 43 SW 3 1 1315 W 6 6864 P 09/30-09 3 0 56 33 SW 3 3 4 1 NW25 1848 W 6 9878 P 09/30-10 3 0 62 26 S 3 1 3189 W 8 25261 P 09/30-11 3 0 65 23 S 3 1 4530 W 9 40645 F 09/30-12 7 0 68 21 S 3 3 4 1 NW24 5872 W 12 56029 F 09/30-13 7 0 70 18 S 3 1 6687 W 13 76818 G 09/30-14 7 0 70 17 SW 5 1 7502 W 15 97607 G 09/30-15 7 0 71 16 W 5 5 3 1 NW24 8317 W 16 118397 V 09/30-16 7 0 71 17 W 5 1 8141 W 16 115270 V 09/30-17 7 0 69 20 W 3 1 7965 W 16 112144 V 09/30-18 12 0 68 22 NW 3 3 3 1 W24 7789 W 16 109018 V 09/30-19 12 0 63 26 W 3 1 5644 W 13 75077 G 09/30-20 12 0 59 29 W 3 1 3499 W 9 41137 F 09/30-21 12 0 57 30 SW 5 5 4 1 W24 1354 W 6 7196 P 09/30-22 12 0 55 31 SW 6 1 986 W 7 5385 P 09/30-23 12 0 54 30 W 6 1 617 W 7 3574 P 10/01-00 15 0 51 32 W 7 7 5 1 W23 249 W 8 1762 P 10/01-01 15 0 50 33 W 8 1 220 W 8 1618 P 10/01-02 15 0 49 34 W 8 1 191 W 9 1474 P 10/01-03 15 0 48 34 W 9 9 5 1 W25 162 W 9 1330 P 10/01-04 15 0 47 32 W 9 1 159 W 9 1341 P 10/01-05 15 0 46 30 W 9 1 156 W 10 1351 P 10/01-06 16 0 46 29 W 9 9 4 1 NW28 153 W 10 1362 P 10/01-07 16 0 48 30 W 9 1 1004 W 12 11867 P 10/01-08 16 0 52 29 W 9 1 1854 NW 13 22372 P 10/01-09 16 0 58 27 W 9 9 3 1 NW29 2705 NW 14 32877 P 10/01-10 16 0 65 21 NW 8 1 5779 NW 17 88258 G 10/01-11 16 0 67 18 NW 8 1 8092 NW 17 129084 V 10/01-12 20 0 70 16 NW 8 13 3 1 NW29 10405 NW 18 169909 E 10/01-13 20 0 71 15 NW 8 1 11157 NW 17 163629 E 10/01-14 20 0 72 15 N 8 1 11909 NW 15 157350 E 10/01-15 20 0 72 15 N 7 7 3 1 W23 12661 NW 14 151070 E 10/01-16 20 0 71 16 N 7 1 12212 NW 13 133579 V 10/01-17 20 0 70 17 NE 7 1 11764 NW 12 116088 V 10/01-18 17 0 68 19 NE 7 7 3 1 W22 11315 NW 10 98597 G 10/01-19 17 0 63 23 NE 7 1 8897 W 9 76348 G 10/01-20 17 0 58 28 E 8 1 6479 S 9 54099 F 10/01-21 17 0 56 31 E 8 14 2 1 W28 4061 SE 9 31850 P 10/01-22 17 0 54 34 SE 9 1 3496 SE 10 30338 P 10/01-23 17 0 52 36 S 9 1 2930 SE 12 28826 P 10/02-00 22 0 50 39 S 9 15 3 1 NW28 2365 SE 14 27313 P 10/02-01 22 0 48 42 S 9 1 2022 S 12 21439 P 10/02-02 22 0 47 43 S 8 1 1678 S 10 15564 P 10/02-03 22 0 46 44 S 7 7 3 1 NW21 1335 S 8 9689 P 10/02-04 22 0 45 44 SW 6 1 1108 SW 7 7244 P 10/02-05 22 0 44 43 SW 6 1 880 SW 6 4799 P 10/02-06 20 0 44 43 SW 5 5 3 1 NW20 653 W 5 2353 P 10/02-07 20 0 46 39 SW 5 1 1269 W 5 4560 P 10/02-08 20 0 49 35 S 3 1 1885 W 5 6766 P 10/02-09 20 0 54 29 S 3 3 4 1 N18 2501 W 5 8972 P 10/02-10 20 0 60 24 S 3 1 4406 W 6 23587 P 10/02-11 20 0 62 22 SE 3 1 6311 NW 6 38203 P 10/02-12 55 10 64 21 SE 3 3 3 2 N16 8217 NW 7 52818 F 10/02-13 55 10 65 21 SE 3 2 9162 NW 8 66114 G 10/02-14 55 10 66 21 SE 5 2 10107 NW 9 79410 G 10/02-15 55 10 67 21 SE 6 6 3 2 NW17 11052 NW 9 92706 G 10/02-16 55 10 66 22 SE 6 2 10155 NW 9 78072 G 10/02-17 55 10 65 23 SE 7 2 9258 W 8 63438 G 10/02-18 47 10 64 23 SE 7 7 3 2 NW18 8360 W 7 48803 F 10/02-19 47 10 61 26 SE 7 2 6676 W 5 34446 P 10/02-20 47 10 58 29 S 6 2 4992 SW 3 20088 P 10/02-21 47 10 57 30 S 6 6 3 2 NW20 3307 SW 2 5730 P 10/02-22 47 10 56 32 SW 5 2 2609 SW 2 4896 P 10/02-23 47 10 55 33 SW 3 2 1912 SW 2 4063 P 10/03-00 24 0 53 34 SW 3 3 3 1 NW15 1214 SW 3 3229 P 10/03-01 24 0 52 34 SW 3 1 983 W 3 2779 P 10/03-02 24 0 51 33 W 3 1 751 W 3 2329 P 10/03-03 24 0 51 33 W 5 5 4 1 NW14 520 W 5 1879 P 10/03-04 24 0 50 33 W 5 1 449 W 5 1689 P 10/03-05 24 0 50 33 W 5 1 378 W 5 1498 P 10/03-06 24 0 49 33 W 5 5 4 1 NW15 308 NW 5 1307 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ DANKERS...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FIRE OPERATIONS REASON FOR REQUEST...WFU .TAG 20100929.COWCR.01/BOU