FNUS75 KGJT 290459
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALDRICH LAKES RX...WHITE RIVER NF, BLANCO RD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1059 PM MDT TUE SEP 28 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT ABOUT 14,000 FEET
MSL WILL LIMIT MIXING. TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON'S MIXING IS RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF
POOR-FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL WHILE THURSDAY'S INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
WILL TAKE THE BURN SITE INTO THE GOOD CATEGORY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE TERRAIN-DRIVEN. HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH STARTING FRIDAY. ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BURN SITE. BUT OUTFLOW ERRATIC WINDS COULD
POSSIBLY REACH THE BURN SITE THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES
MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-84 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-12%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 1-4 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    2-6 MPH BY LATE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR REACHING FAIR BETWEEN 1400-1700 HOURS
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL BETWEEN
                    1400-1700.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........15-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 2-5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-12%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 1-5 MPH SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
                    3-8 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...TONI TOELLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100929.ALDRI.02/GJT