FNUS75 KBOU 011219 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 619 AM MDT FRI OCT 1 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AND MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONTINUING WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ON SATURDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP EASTERLY WINDS BLOWING INTO THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. OTHER THAN DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT...NO WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO UTAH. MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW MAY PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL STAY LOW BECAUSE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TOO FAR WEST TO IMPACT WEATHER OVER COLORADO. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-72. MIN HUMIDITY........24-32%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 6-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHEAST 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 8000-9000 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 2400...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-44. MAX HUMIDITY........56-64%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 4-12 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTH 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4800-5800 FT AGL UNTIL 2100. 1000-2000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-68. MIN HUMIDITY........26-34%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST 5-6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2800 FT AGL UNTIL 1200. 7400-7800 FT AGL AFTER 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1500...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS 8-14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 24 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 6-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/01-05 0 0 42 34 W 10 1 171 W 12 1766 P 10/01-06 0 0 44 32 W 9 9 4 1 NW28 177 W 12 1770 P 10/01-07 0 0 45 33 NW 7 1 300 NW 9 1956 P 10/01-08 0 0 50 33 NW 5 1 424 NW 7 2143 P 10/01-09 0 0 56 29 NW 3 3 3 1 NW28 547 NW 5 2330 P 10/01-10 0 0 61 24 N 5 1 3258 NW 7 29669 P 10/01-11 0 0 64 20 NE 7 1 5969 NW 9 57009 F 10/01-12 0 0 66 18 NE 8 8 3 1 NW31 8680 W 12 84348 G 10/01-13 0 0 67 17 NE 8 1 8984 W 10 82817 G 10/01-14 0 0 68 17 NE 7 1 9288 W 10 81286 G 10/01-15 0 0 69 17 NE 7 7 3 1 W26 9592 W 9 79755 G 10/01-16 0 0 68 19 E 8 1 8346 NW 7 58522 F 10/01-17 0 0 67 22 E 9 1 7100 NE 6 37289 P 10/01-18 41 3 65 25 E 10 10 3 1 W24 5853 E 3 16056 P 10/01-19 41 3 60 30 E 9 1 5312 E 6 24633 P 10/01-20 41 3 56 35 E 8 1 4771 E 8 33210 P 10/01-21 35 3 54 38 E 7 7 2 1 W25 4230 E 12 41788 F 10/01-22 35 3 52 41 E 6 1 3468 SE 13 35632 P 10/01-23 35 3 51 44 SE 6 1 2706 SE 13 29476 P 10/02-00 6 3 49 48 SE 6 6 2 1 NW23 1943 SE 14 23320 P 10/02-01 6 3 47 51 SE 6 1 1746 SE 13 19449 P 10/02-02 6 3 46 54 S 6 1 1548 S 12 15578 P 10/02-03 16 3 45 55 S 6 6 3 1 NW18 1351 S 10 11707 P 10/02-04 16 3 44 55 S 5 1 1170 S 8 9129 P 10/02-05 16 3 43 53 S 5 1 989 SW 7 6551 P 10/02-06 20 3 43 53 S 3 3 3 1 N20 969 SW 5 3583 P 10/02-07 20 3 45 50 S 3 1 1019 SW 3 3434 P 10/02-08 20 3 47 46 S 3 1 1068 W 3 3285 P 10/02-09 20 3 52 40 S 3 3 3 1 N23 1118 W 3 3136 P 10/02-10 20 3 51 43 S 3 1 2260 W 3 7933 P 10/02-11 20 3 55 38 S 3 1 3402 W 5 12729 P 10/02-12 55 10 59 34 S 3 3 4 2 N20 4543 NW 5 17525 P 10/02-13 55 10 61 32 S 3 2 5601 NW 6 27770 P 10/02-14 55 10 63 31 S 5 2 6658 W 6 38014 P 10/02-15 55 10 63 31 SE 5 5 3 2 NW20 7715 W 7 48259 F 10/02-16 55 10 63 31 SE 5 2 7549 W 8 50740 F 10/02-17 55 10 63 32 SE 6 2 7382 W 8 53221 F 10/02-18 47 10 62 32 SE 6 6 3 2 NW25 7215 W 9 55702 F 10/02-19 47 10 59 36 S 6 2 5479 W 8 40188 F 10/02-20 47 10 57 39 S 6 2 3742 W 7 24675 P 10/02-21 47 10 54 41 SW 6 6 3 2 NW24 2005 W 6 9161 P 10/02-22 47 10 53 42 SW 6 2 1520 W 6 7114 P 10/02-23 47 10 51 43 W 6 2 1034 W 6 5067 P 10/03-00 24 0 50 42 W 6 6 3 1 NW21 549 W 7 3020 P 10/03-01 24 0 49 41 W 6 1 449 NW 7 2500 P 10/03-02 24 0 49 39 W 6 1 350 NW 7 1981 P 10/03-03 24 0 49 36 W 7 7 3 1 NW22 250 NW 7 1462 P 10/03-04 24 0 48 34 W 7 1 244 NW 7 1472 P 10/03-05 24 0 48 32 W 7 1 238 NW 7 1482 P 10/03-06 24 0 48 31 W 7 7 3 1 NW26 232 NW 7 1493 P 10/03-07 24 0 49 30 NW 7 1 526 NW 7 2879 P 10/03-08 24 0 50 28 NW 6 1 819 NW 7 4266 P 10/03-09 24 0 53 26 NW 5 5 3 1 NW25 1112 NW 6 5652 P 10/03-10 24 0 56 24 N 5 1 4361 NW 8 38204 P 10/03-11 24 0 60 22 N 3 1 7611 NW 9 70756 G 10/03-12 30 10 63 20 N 3 3 3 2 NW22 10860 NW 12 103308 V 10/03-13 30 10 65 19 N 3 2 11667 NW 10 103335 V 10/03-14 30 10 67 19 NE 5 2 12474 NW 9 103362 V 10/03-15 30 10 68 19 E 5 5 3 2 W18 13281 W 9 103389 V 10/03-16 30 10 68 20 E 6 2 12951 W 9 100453 V 10/03-17 30 10 67 21 SE 7 2 12622 W 9 97517 G 10/03-18 30 10 66 21 SE 7 7 3 2 W18 12292 W 9 94581 G 10/03-19 30 10 64 23 SE 7 2 9806 W 8 73158 G 10/03-20 30 10 61 25 S 7 2 7321 SW 8 51734 F 10/03-21 30 10 58 27 S 7 7 3 2 NW14 4835 SW 7 30310 P 10/03-22 30 10 56 29 SW 7 2 3592 SW 8 23086 P 10/03-23 30 10 55 30 W 7 2 2350 W 8 15863 P 10/04-00 28 0 54 32 W 7 7 3 1 W 7 1107 W 9 8639 P 10/04-01 28 0 53 32 W 7 1 994 W 9 7672 P 10/04-02 28 0 52 33 W 7 1 881 W 9 6705 P 10/04-03 28 0 52 33 W 8 13 3 1 W 7 768 W 8 5739 P 10/04-04 28 0 51 33 W 8 1 790 W 9 6117 P 10/04-05 28 0 51 33 W 9 1 811 SW 9 6495 P 10/04-06 28 0 51 33 W 9 15 3 1 SW13 833 SW 9 6874 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ DANKERS...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FIRE OPERATIONS REASON FOR REQUEST...WFU .TAG 20100930.COWCR.01/BOU