FNUS75 KCYS 011922
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR MCCARTY...BLM RAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
122 PM MDT FRI OCT 1 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1304 MDT ON OCTOBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY...WITH MAYBE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS BY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY
CONSIDERING THE NW ASPECT OF THE FIRE. MORE EXPOSED AUTOMATED
SITE 8 MILES WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE FIRE HAS ALREADY TURNED
NORTHEAST TODAY...EVEN THOUGH THE BURN AREA IS EXPERIENCING
WEST/SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. THINK THAT THE MID-SLOPE MAY
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE THESE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS ON NEARBY LOCATIONS MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO EXPOSURE. IN EITHER RATE...THESE WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BECOME DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY THIS EVENING WITH FAIR
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME UPSLOPE ONCE AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-79.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-17 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........MID-SLOPE...3-6 MPH UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY
                    TOP OF FIRE...5 TO 10 NORTHEAST.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (UP TO 70100 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45 TO 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AFTER 2100.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST/NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD BECOMING POOR AFTER 2400 (1000-39900 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE OF LESS THAN 4 MPH UNTIL 1000...
                    THEN BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 3 TO 7 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7600 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR BECOMING EXCELLENT (23400-84100 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...HAHN
REQUESTED BY...RICH UTT
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20101001.MCCAR.02/CYS