FNUS76 KMFR 010141
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR UPPER THOMAS CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
641 PM PDT THU SEP 30 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 PDT ON OCTOBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY THEN SHIFT
GRADUALLY EAST ON SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ALOFT SATURDAY AND THERE WILL BE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.
THUS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A DRY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS
OVER THE SITE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLING TREND CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-17 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WIND 0 TO 2 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 3 TO
                    5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-52.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVEING THEN
                    DOWNSLOPE WIND 0 TO 2 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL FALLING TO 700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 8 TO 12 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WIND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 3 TO 5 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL RISING TO 6500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.

$$
FORECASTER...WEYGAND
REQUESTED BY...COLEY NEIDER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101001.UPPER.01/MFR