FNUS75 KPUB 011348
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR RANGE 143 - 155...FORT CARSON FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
748 AM MDT FRI OCT 1 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BURN AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
PROBABLY BETWEEN 1300 AND 1500 MDT.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SOME GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...WHICH COULD BRING CONDITIONS NEAR
RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.
THE MIXING LAYER WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT TRANSPORT
WINDS IN THIS LAYER...SMOKE DISPERSAL IS EXPECTED TO ONLY GET INTO THE
FAIR CATEGORY.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-84F.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-19 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........VARIABLE 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN NORTHEAST AROUND 8
                    MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 15-25 MPH BETWEEN 1300 AND
                    1500.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 9400 FT AGL UNTIL
                    1700...THEN LESS THAN 500 FEET AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 4 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1400...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN
                    POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL 2400...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(64
                    PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52F.
MAX HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(49 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71F.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
                    10-15 MPH BECOMING 15-20 MPH AROUND 1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 11 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. FAIR AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...EVENSON
REQUESTED BY...PETER WOLF
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101001.RANGE.01/PUB