FNUS75 KRIW 030832
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR CRYSTAL...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
232 AM MDT SUN OCT 3 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1714 MDT ON OCTOBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS PREVAILED ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER...WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST TODAY. TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
SHOW LITTLE 24 HOUR TREND TODAY. UPSTREAM...A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND BRING INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM PUSHING INTO THE AREA MONDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO PICK UP MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MORE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WILL PREVAIL THIS UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH SLIM CHANCES OF
RECEIVING A WETTING RAIN.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LIPSON

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80 AT 7500 FEET. 72 AT 8900 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........11 PERCENT AT 7500 FEET AND 15 PERCENT AT 8900 FEET.
20 FOOT WINDS.......EAST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE 3-5 MPH BY 0830. WINDS
                    BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 3 TO 7 MPH BY 1900.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7100-8100 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 12
                    TO 14 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (9100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (63700
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-43.
MAX HUMIDITY........67-70 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 3-6 MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST IN THE EVENING.
                    AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8200 FEET WINDS BRIEFLY BLOWING
                    WEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THEN WINDS BECOMING
                    DOWNVALLEY AT 3 TO 7 MPH FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700-5700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    13 TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (57400 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (3100
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1600 ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70 AT 7500 FEET AND 62 AT 8900 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT AT 7500 FEET AND 28 PERCENT AT 8900 FEET.
20 FOOT WINDS.......EAST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE 3-5 MPH BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST 11
                    TO 12 MPH AFTER 1200 WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4900-5900 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (28300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (85200
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LIPSON
REQUESTED BY...ANDREA
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20101002.CRYST.01/RIW