FNUS75 KPUB 031350
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR RANGE 143 - 155...FORT CARSON FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
750 AM MDT SUN OCT 3 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

THE WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER TODAY LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AND AS A RESULT
THE SMOKE DISPERSAL REMAINS IN THE POOR CATEGORY.  IN ORDER FOR THE
SMOKE DISPERSAL TO GET INTO THE FAIR CATEGORY...THE MAX TEMPERATURE
WOULD HAVE TO REACH 80 DEGREES WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. HOWEVER
IF IT DID...THE SMOKE DISPERSAL WOULD ONLY BE IN THE FAIR CATEGORY FOR A
SHORT TIME.  LATE THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEARBY MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO CAUSE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

ON MONDAY THE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BUT THE
MIXING LAYER WILL BE MUCH DEEPER...RESULTING IN BETTER SMOKE DISPERSAL.
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-77F.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........VARIABLE 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 9
                    MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 14 MPH AROUND 1400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1300...THEN 4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 4 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(41 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50F.
MAX HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........EAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    WEST TO NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......EAST AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN WEST AROUND
                    11 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST TO NORTHWEST 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000 THEN SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 10 MPH THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100. 11700 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. GOOD BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...EVENSON
REQUESTED BY...PETER WOLF
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101003.RANGE.01/PUB