FNUS75 KBOU 051120 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 515 AM MDT TUE OCT 5 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE FIRE WILL REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN A BIT WARMER AGAIN THURSDAY BUT ALSO WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE TREND FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. WHILE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HIT THE FIRE DURING THIS PERIOD. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 0900...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1500...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-68. MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 7-13 MPH BY 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 3000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 9000 FT AGL BY 1300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-46. MAX HUMIDITY........60-70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN NORTHEAST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST. MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 2200 AND 1000 FT AGL BY 0200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2200. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-61. MIN HUMIDITY........40-47%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 11-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 2000 FT AGL BY 0900 AND 4000 FT AGL BY 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. GOOD AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/05-04 18 0 48 43 CALM 12 1 458 SW 6 2050 P 10/05-05 18 0 46 46 SW 5 1 349 SW 7 1796 P 10/05-06 24 0 46 47 SW 7 7 3 1 SW17 240 SW 7 1542 P 10/05-07 24 0 47 47 SW 6 1 455 SW 6 1977 P 10/05-08 24 0 48 47 S 5 1 671 SW 5 2412 P 10/05-09 41 0 50 45 S 3 3 3 1 SW18 886 SW 3 2847 P 10/05-10 41 0 53 39 S 5 1 3729 SW 6 25235 P 10/05-11 41 0 58 33 SE 6 1 6571 S 7 47624 F 10/05-12 77 20 61 28 SE 7 7 2 3 S20 9414 S 8 70012 G 10/05-13 77 20 64 26 SE 8 3 9851 S 7 59584 F 10/05-14 77 20 65 26 E 9 3 10288 S 6 49157 F 10/05-15 78 30 66 25 E 9 15 2 4 SW15 10724 S 5 38729 P 10/05-16 78 30 65 26 E 8 4 10253 SE 6 47405 F 10/05-17 78 30 64 26 E 6 4 9782 SE 7 56082 F 10/05-18 68 19 63 28 E 5 5 2 3 S 7 9310 E 8 64759 G 10/05-19 68 19 59 32 E 5 3 7365 E 8 51747 F 10/05-20 68 19 56 35 E 5 3 5420 E 8 38735 P 10/05-21 68 19 54 37 E 5 5 2 3 S12 3475 E 8 25723 P 10/05-22 68 19 52 39 SE 6 3 2703 E 8 19836 P 10/05-23 68 19 51 41 S 7 3 1932 E 8 13949 P 10/06-00 66 8 50 44 S 7 7 2 1 S 9 1160 E 8 8062 P 10/06-01 66 8 48 48 S 6 1 920 E 8 6518 P 10/06-02 66 8 47 53 E 5 1 681 E 8 4974 P 10/06-03 66 8 47 57 NE 5 5 2 1 SE17 441 E 9 3431 P 10/06-04 66 8 46 56 NE 7 1 505 E 10 4600 P 10/06-05 66 8 46 54 NE 9 1 569 E 12 5769 P 10/06-06 78 10 45 55 NE 12 18 2 1 S18 632 E 13 6937 P 10/06-07 78 10 47 62 E 12 1 1571 E 15 22988 P 10/06-08 78 10 48 67 E 13 1 2509 E 16 39038 P 10/06-09 78 10 51 65 E 13 21 2 1 S16 3447 SE 18 55088 F 10/06-10 78 10 55 60 E 13 1 4011 SE 18 63521 G 10/06-11 78 10 56 57 SE 12 1 4576 SE 18 71954 G 10/06-12 78 20 57 53 SE 12 18 3 3 S17 5140 SE 18 80387 G 10/06-13 78 20 58 51 SE 12 3 5265 SE 17 78589 G 10/06-14 78 20 58 49 SE 13 3 5389 SE 16 76791 G 10/06-15 78 20 59 48 SE 13 21 2 3 S20 5514 SE 16 74993 G 10/06-16 78 20 58 47 SE 13 3 5312 SE 16 72085 G 10/06-17 78 20 58 47 SE 13 3 5111 SE 16 69177 G 10/06-18 78 20 57 48 SE 14 22 2 3 S16 4909 SE 16 66269 G 10/06-19 78 20 54 51 SE 15 3 4265 SE 17 63161 G 10/06-20 78 20 52 55 SE 17 3 3622 SE 20 60053 G 10/06-21 78 20 51 56 SE 18 30 3 3 S17 2978 SE 22 56946 F 10/06-22 78 20 50 58 SE 20 3 2613 SE 22 49667 F 10/06-23 78 20 50 58 S 20 3 2247 S 22 42389 F 10/07-00 51 10 49 59 S 18 30 2 1 S17 1882 S 22 35110 P 10/07-01 51 10 48 59 S 16 1 1557 S 18 26583 P 10/07-02 51 10 47 58 S 13 1 1232 S 15 18055 P 10/07-03 51 10 47 57 S 10 10 2 1 S22 907 S 13 9527 P 10/07-04 51 10 47 55 SW 9 1 763 SW 10 7420 P 10/07-05 51 10 46 55 SW 8 1 618 SW 9 5312 P 10/07-06 51 10 46 55 W 8 8 2 1 S16 474 SW 8 3205 P 10/07-07 51 10 47 55 W 7 1 1633 SW 7 8470 P 10/07-08 51 10 51 49 SW 7 1 2792 SW 6 13736 P 10/07-09 51 10 55 42 SW 6 6 2 1 S23 3950 SW 6 19002 P 10/07-10 51 10 59 35 SW 6 1 5405 SW 7 38015 P 10/07-11 51 10 61 32 S 5 1 6860 S 9 57029 F 10/07-12 65 30 63 29 SE 6 6 2 4 SW26 8315 S 10 76042 G 10/07-13 65 30 64 28 SE 8 4 8727 S 10 81539 G 10/07-14 65 30 64 28 SE 9 4 9140 S 12 87036 G 10/07-15 65 30 65 28 SE 12 18 3 4 SW28 9552 S 12 92532 G 10/07-16 65 30 64 30 SE 13 4 8909 S 13 98731 G 10/07-17 65 30 63 33 SE 13 4 8265 S 15 104929 V 10/07-18 65 30 61 35 SE 12 18 3 4 SW23 7622 S 17 111128 V 10/07-19 65 30 58 37 SE 10 4 5781 S 15 80002 G 10/07-20 65 30 54 38 SE 8 4 3940 S 12 48875 F 10/07-21 65 30 53 37 SE 7 7 3 4 SW26 2100 SE 9 17749 P 10/07-22 65 30 51 39 SE 8 4 1497 S 10 12716 P 10/07-23 65 30 50 40 S 9 4 895 S 10 7684 P 10/08-00 65 20 48 42 S 10 10 3 1 S28 293 S 10 2651 P 10/08-01 65 20 47 44 SW 12 1 273 SW 12 2684 P 10/08-02 65 20 46 45 SW 13 1 253 SW 13 2717 P 10/08-03 65 20 46 47 SW 13 21 3 1 S29 233 SW 14 2750 P 10/08-04 65 20 45 48 SW 13 1 306 SW 13 3231 P 10/08-05 65 20 45 50 SW 12 1 379 W 12 3713 P 10/08-06 65 20 44 51 W 12 18 3 1 SW36 452 W 10 4195 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...ALEX VIKTORA REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20101004.COWCR.01/BOU