FNUS75 KMSO 041559
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR BAGS CK  RX
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
959 AM MDT MON OCT 4 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON OCTOBER 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BURN SITE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
AFTER 3 PM MDT. DO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT
SOME LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP BEFORE THE
MORE WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIPITATION. AHEAD OF THE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...COULD SEE SOME BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THAT MAY GET
CHANNELED THROUGH THE SADDLE JUST EAST OF THE FIRE. THE STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...SO WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST. STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY MORNING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 2-4 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-6 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 15 MPH ESPECIALLY
                    NEAR STORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................70 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    VARIABLE 2-5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 5 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MEAD
REQUESTED BY...HAHNKAMP
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101004.BAGSC.01/MSO