FNUS75 KBOU 051156 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR CHURCHES PARK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 600 AM MDT TUE OCT 5 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE FIRE WILL REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING TENDENCY FOR A STEADY GENTLE EAST WIND THROUGH THE CROOKED CREEK VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN A BIT WARMER AGAIN THURSDAY BUT ALSO WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE TREND FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. WHILE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HIT THE FIRE DURING THIS PERIOD. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 0900...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1500...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-62. MIN HUMIDITY........33-37%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 0-5 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/ UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN EAST 3-6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5-10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 2000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 8000 FT AGL BY 1300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1300...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-45. MAX HUMIDITY........55-65%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 3-6 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH UNTIL 0200...THEN EAST 3-6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-61. MIN HUMIDITY........40-47%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 3000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 6000 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CHURCHES PARK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/05-05 15 2 42 55 SE 5 1 241 SE 3 671 P 10/05-06 19 0 42 53 SE 5 5 3 1 SW22 254 SE 3 846 P 10/05-07 19 0 42 53 SE 3 1 317 SE 2 680 P 10/05-08 19 0 43 54 SE 2 1 379 SE 2 513 P 10/05-09 37 0 45 54 CALM 1 3 1 S20 442 CALM 346 P 10/05-10 37 0 48 49 CALM 1 2670 SE 2 10101 P 10/05-11 37 0 52 43 CALM 1 4897 S 3 19855 P 10/05-12 78 20 56 39 W 2 2 2 3 S18 7125 S 5 29609 P 10/05-13 78 20 59 36 NW 2 3 7909 S 5 33327 P 10/05-14 78 20 60 34 N 3 3 8693 SE 5 37045 P 10/05-15 80 30 61 33 NE 3 3 3 4 S20 9477 SE 5 40763 F 10/05-16 80 30 60 35 NE 5 4 8980 SE 6 48168 F 10/05-17 80 30 59 38 NE 6 4 8484 E 8 55573 F 10/05-18 72 24 58 39 NE 6 6 2 3 S12 7988 E 9 62978 G 10/05-19 72 24 55 44 E 6 3 5489 E 7 42342 F 10/05-20 72 24 53 47 S 5 3 2991 E 5 21706 P 10/05-21 72 24 51 49 S 3 3 3 3 S13 492 E 2 1070 P 10/05-22 72 24 50 50 S 2 3 475 E 3 1484 P 10/05-23 72 24 49 51 SE 2 3 459 E 5 1898 P 10/06-00 66 10 48 53 SE 2 2 2 1 SE15 442 E 6 2312 P 10/06-01 66 10 47 55 SE 3 1 407 E 7 2383 P 10/06-02 66 10 46 59 SE 6 1 373 SE 8 2453 P 10/06-03 66 10 45 61 S 8 13 2 1 SE18 338 SE 8 2524 P 10/06-04 66 10 45 61 SE 8 1 326 SE 8 2370 P 10/06-05 66 10 45 60 SE 7 1 313 SE 8 2216 P 10/06-06 78 10 44 59 E 7 7 2 1 S20 300 E 8 2062 P 10/06-07 78 10 45 60 E 8 1 1199 E 10 13666 P 10/06-08 78 10 48 57 E 8 1 2099 E 12 25270 P 10/06-09 78 10 51 52 E 9 9 2 1 S18 2998 E 14 36873 P 10/06-10 78 10 54 48 E 12 1 4022 SE 15 56538 F 10/06-11 78 10 56 48 E 13 1 5046 SE 17 76203 G 10/06-12 78 20 57 47 E 14 22 3 3 S17 6069 SE 18 95869 G 10/06-13 78 20 58 47 E 14 3 6512 SE 17 97559 G 10/06-14 78 20 58 47 E 13 3 6954 SE 16 99249 G 10/06-15 78 20 59 47 E 12 18 2 3 S16 7396 SE 16 100940 V 10/06-16 78 20 58 48 E 12 3 6630 SE 16 91028 G 10/06-17 78 20 57 50 E 13 3 5864 SE 16 81116 G 10/06-18 78 20 56 52 E 13 21 3 3 S17 5098 SE 16 71204 G 10/06-19 78 20 53 58 E 13 3 4188 SE 17 61633 G 10/06-20 78 20 51 63 SE 13 3 3279 SE 20 52062 F 10/06-21 78 20 50 65 SE 13 21 3 3 S18 2369 SE 21 42490 F 10/06-22 78 20 49 68 SE 12 3 1998 SE 18 33337 P 10/06-23 78 20 48 69 SE 10 3 1626 SE 16 24183 P 10/07-00 62 10 47 70 SE 9 9 3 1 S21 1255 SE 14 15029 P 10/07-01 62 10 46 69 SE 8 1 1047 SE 12 11549 P 10/07-02 62 10 45 67 SE 8 1 839 SE 10 8069 P 10/07-03 62 10 45 65 SE 7 7 2 1 S21 631 SE 8 4589 P 10/07-04 62 10 44 63 SE 6 1 592 SE 7 3813 P 10/07-05 62 10 44 62 SE 6 1 554 S 6 3038 P 10/07-06 62 10 44 61 S 5 5 2 1 S17 515 S 5 2262 P 10/07-07 62 10 45 59 S 3 1 2123 S 5 9213 P 10/07-08 62 10 49 51 S 3 1 3732 S 5 16165 P 10/07-09 62 10 54 43 S 2 2 2 1 S20 5341 SW 5 23116 P 10/07-10 62 10 59 37 S 2 1 6522 SW 6 35556 P 10/07-11 62 10 61 34 SE 2 1 7704 S 7 47996 F 10/07-12 73 30 63 32 SE 2 2 3 4 S22 8886 S 8 60435 G 10/07-13 73 30 64 31 SE 3 4 9832 S 9 82328 G 10/07-14 73 30 64 30 SE 5 4 10778 S 10 104221 V 10/07-15 73 30 65 29 SE 6 6 3 4 SW29 11724 S 13 126114 V 10/07-16 73 30 64 31 SE 7 4 10963 S 14 126004 V 10/07-17 73 30 63 34 SE 7 4 10202 S 14 125894 V 10/07-18 73 30 61 36 SE 7 7 3 4 SW20 9440 S 15 125784 V 10/07-19 73 30 56 39 SE 7 4 6417 S 13 84598 G 10/07-20 73 30 53 41 S 7 4 3395 S 9 43411 F 10/07-21 73 30 51 40 S 7 7 3 4 SW25 372 S 7 2224 P 10/07-22 73 30 49 42 S 8 4 329 S 8 2253 P 10/07-23 73 30 48 44 S 9 4 287 S 9 2281 P 10/08-00 73 20 46 47 S 10 10 3 1 S26 245 S 10 2309 P 10/08-01 73 20 45 49 S 10 1 253 S 12 2451 P 10/08-02 73 20 44 51 S 10 1 260 S 12 2594 P 10/08-03 73 20 43 52 SW 10 10 3 1 S30 268 SW 12 2736 P 10/08-04 73 20 42 54 SW 10 1 368 SW 10 2884 P 10/08-05 73 20 42 55 SW 9 1 467 SW 8 3032 P 10/08-06 73 20 41 57 SW 9 9 3 1 SW40 566 SW 7 3180 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...COURTNEY BALDWIN REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20101005.CHURC.01/BOU