FNUS75 KBOU 052148 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR CHURCHES PARK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 348 PM MDT TUE OCT 5 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WINDS ALOFT OVER COLORADO LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS TO OUR WEST THROUGH THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER 0300. MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-42. MAX HUMIDITY........68-74%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 6-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7500-8000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1100 THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-60. MIN HUMIDITY........44-50%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 5200-6200 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-44. MAX HUMIDITY........70-76%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 8-14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 1200-2200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-64. MIN HUMIDITY........30-38%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST 6-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 10000-11000 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. VERY GOOD AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .COLUMBUS DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1800. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CHURCHES PARK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/05-15 80 30 61 30 NE 3 3 2 2 S29 9843 SE 8 66120 G 10/05-16 80 30 62 32 E 2 2 9265 SE 9 74662 G 10/05-17 80 30 60 34 CALM 2 8687 SE 12 83203 G 10/05-18 80 30 59 38 CALM 1 2 2 S17 8108 SE 13 91744 G 10/05-19 80 30 55 45 S 2 2 5567 SE 12 62449 G 10/05-20 80 30 52 50 SE 5 2 3025 SE 10 33155 P 10/05-21 72 30 51 53 SE 6 6 2 2 SW 8 483 SE 9 3860 P 10/05-22 72 24 49 54 SE 6 1 450 SE 9 3471 P 10/05-23 72 24 48 54 SE 5 1 416 SE 8 3082 P 10/06-00 66 10 47 55 S 5 5 2 1 SE 8 382 SE 8 2693 P 10/06-01 66 10 46 58 SE 5 1 355 SE 8 2507 P 10/06-02 66 10 45 63 SE 6 1 328 SE 8 2322 P 10/06-03 66 10 45 67 SE 6 6 2 1 SE16 300 E 8 2136 P 10/06-04 66 10 44 67 SE 6 1 302 E 8 2193 P 10/06-05 66 10 44 65 SE 7 1 303 SE 8 2251 P 10/06-06 70 10 43 65 SE 7 7 2 1 SE20 304 SE 9 2308 P 10/06-07 70 10 43 69 SE 6 1 805 E 10 8128 P 10/06-08 70 10 45 72 SE 5 1 1306 E 12 13949 P 10/06-09 70 10 46 72 SE 5 5 2 1 S18 1806 E 13 19769 P 10/06-10 70 10 50 65 SE 6 1 2870 SE 16 45536 F 10/06-11 70 10 52 59 SE 7 1 3935 SE 20 71303 G 10/06-12 76 24 55 54 SE 8 8 3 3 S16 4999 SE 22 97070 G 10/06-13 76 24 56 54 SE 8 3 5420 SE 22 102951 V 10/06-14 76 24 57 55 S 9 3 5840 SE 22 108832 V 10/06-15 76 24 58 55 S 9 14 3 3 S16 6260 SE 21 114714 V 10/06-16 76 24 58 53 SE 10 3 5685 SE 21 100769 V 10/06-17 76 24 57 52 SE 12 3 5110 SE 20 86825 G 10/06-18 77 20 55 53 E 13 20 3 3 S17 4677 SE 18 74158 G 10/06-19 77 20 53 58 E 13 3 4061 SE 18 66203 G 10/06-20 77 20 51 64 SE 13 3 3445 SE 20 58248 F 10/06-21 77 20 50 66 SE 13 21 3 3 S15 2829 SE 21 50293 F 10/06-22 77 20 48 69 SE 12 3 2412 SE 17 38623 P 10/06-23 77 20 48 69 SE 10 3 1996 SE 14 26954 P 10/07-00 77 10 47 70 SE 9 15 2 1 SW25 1579 SE 12 15284 P 10/07-01 77 10 46 69 SE 8 1 1390 SE 10 13229 P 10/07-02 77 10 45 68 SE 8 1 1201 SE 10 11175 P 10/07-03 77 10 45 66 SE 7 7 2 1 S25 1013 SE 10 9120 P 10/07-04 77 10 44 64 SE 6 1 978 S 9 8268 P 10/07-05 77 10 44 62 SE 6 1 943 S 9 7416 P 10/07-06 62 10 44 61 S 5 5 2 1 SW18 909 S 8 6564 P 10/07-07 62 10 45 59 S 3 1 2655 S 8 16058 P 10/07-08 62 10 49 51 S 3 1 4401 SW 7 25551 P 10/07-09 62 10 53 44 S 2 2 2 1 S20 6147 SW 7 35044 P 10/07-10 62 10 58 38 S 2 1 7103 SW 7 44803 F 10/07-11 62 10 60 35 SE 2 1 8060 SW 8 54561 F 10/07-12 73 30 62 33 SE 2 2 2 4 S26 9017 S 8 64320 G 10/07-13 73 30 63 32 SE 3 4 9802 S 9 82469 G 10/07-14 73 30 63 31 SE 5 4 10587 S 10 100619 V 10/07-15 73 30 64 30 SE 6 6 3 4 S31 11371 S 12 118768 V 10/07-16 73 30 63 32 SE 7 4 10857 S 13 118866 V 10/07-17 73 30 62 35 SE 7 4 10343 S 14 118964 V 10/07-18 78 40 60 37 SE 7 7 3 2 S21 9829 S 14 119061 V 10/07-19 78 40 56 40 SE 7 2 6719 S 13 80665 G 10/07-20 78 40 52 41 S 7 2 3608 S 10 42269 F 10/07-21 78 40 51 41 S 7 7 3 2 S28 497 S 9 3873 P 10/07-22 78 40 49 43 S 8 2 844 S 10 8045 P 10/07-23 78 40 48 44 S 9 2 1192 SW 12 12217 P 10/08-00 78 40 46 48 S 10 16 3 2 S31 1540 SW 13 16390 P 10/08-01 78 40 45 50 S 10 2 1407 SW 10 13290 P 10/08-02 78 40 44 51 S 10 2 1273 SW 9 10191 P 10/08-03 78 40 43 53 SW 10 16 3 2 SW29 1140 SW 7 7092 P 10/08-04 78 40 42 54 SW 10 2 984 SW 7 5907 P 10/08-05 78 40 42 55 SW 9 2 828 SW 7 4722 P 10/08-06 72 20 41 57 SW 9 15 2 1 S44 671 SW 6 3536 P 10/08-07 72 20 43 55 SW 9 1 1994 SW 8 17030 P 10/08-08 72 20 44 54 W 10 1 3317 SW 9 30524 P 10/08-09 72 20 47 48 W 10 16 3 1 SW44 4640 SW 10 44018 F 10/08-10 72 20 50 44 W 10 1 6294 SW 14 81009 G 10/08-11 72 20 52 43 W 12 1 7948 SW 16 117999 V 10/08-12 79 30 53 41 W 12 18 3 4 SW38 9601 SW 18 154990 E 10/08-13 79 30 54 41 W 12 4 10433 SW 20 176047 E 10/08-14 79 30 54 40 W 12 4 11264 SW 20 197105 E 10/08-15 79 30 54 39 W 12 18 3 4 SW30 12095 SW 21 218162 E 10/08-16 79 30 54 40 W 12 4 11323 SW 21 207867 E 10/08-17 79 30 53 41 W 10 4 10551 W 22 197572 E 10/08-18 79 30 51 42 W 10 16 3 4 W22 9780 W 22 187277 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ DANKERS...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...LARRY KLOCK REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20101005.CHURC.02/BOU