FNUS73 KDLH 051524
FWSDLH

SPOT FORECAST FOR 18 MILE RX - UNIT 2...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1024 AM CDT TUE OCT 5 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON OCTOBER 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER PRESCRIBED BURN SITE WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CREATE
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE 20 FOOT WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 17 MPH. WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH OR SLIGHT EAST OF SOUTH.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BEGIN AROUND 3 OR 4 PM AND LAST UNTIL JUST BEFORE
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE AND ALLOW
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT MINIMUM RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5
                    TO 9 MPH IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 8 TO 11
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......550 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1550 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (20700).

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
TEMP............55  56  57  59  61  62  59  57
RH..............48  43  40  37  36  34  39  45
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   8   9   10  10  11  9   7
20 FT WIND GUST.9   13  15  16  16  17  14  12

$$
FORECASTER...BRIAN
REQUESTED BY...HARVEY SOBIECK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101005.18MIL.01/DLH