FNUS75 KRIW 060933
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOWER GROS VENTRE RX...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
333 AM MDT WED OCT 6 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1825 MDT ON OCTOBER 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A CUTOFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...AND EJECT NORTHEAST TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE
FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ACROSS
WYOMING THIS EVENING. A BROKEN BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE THIS EVENING...WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT GETTING SOME PRECIPITATION FROM 2100 TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH LITTLE TREND IN
TEMPERATURE FROM TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDING ON
THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN SHOWERS INCREASING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER/MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
                    AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-67 AT 7000 FEET TO 57-60 ABOVE 8000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-42 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 5-9 MPH  GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND POSSIBLE
                    NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.2 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600-4600 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (37300-68200 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 2100...THEN
                    BECOMING CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 2100 THROUGH
                    MIDNIGHT.  CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-80 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH VEERING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-3300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1100 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (17500-43800 KNOT-FT).

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH 1500...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
                    WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-60 AT 7000 FEET TO 50 TO 55 AT RIDGE TOP.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-37 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......EAST SOUTHEAST 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH
                    AFTER 2100. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH.

LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (42900-71200 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER/MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...ANDREA
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101005.LOWER.01/RIW