FNUS75 KBOU 061432 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR CHURCHES PARK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 830 AM MDT WED OCT 6 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS THE FIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE LOW...AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AND EVEN SOME HIGHER GUSTS WITH THE PASSING SHOWERS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-61. MIN HUMIDITY........47-51%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 4800-5800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR. VERY GOOD AFTER 1300. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....43. MAX HUMIDITY........70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 9-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12-20 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....64. MIN HUMIDITY........32%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST 20-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 10800-11800 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0600. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CHURCHES PARK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/06-08 74 0 45 72 E 12 1 1495 E 15 22802 P 10/06-09 74 0 46 72 E 13 21 3 1 S21 2096 E 18 32875 P 10/06-10 74 0 50 65 E 13 1 2916 E 20 51240 F 10/06-11 74 0 52 59 E 13 1 3736 SE 21 69604 G 10/06-12 83 30 55 54 E 13 21 3 4 S17 4556 SE 22 87969 G 10/06-13 83 30 56 54 E 14 4 5135 SE 23 100499 V 10/06-14 83 30 57 55 SE 14 4 5713 SE 23 113030 V 10/06-15 83 30 58 55 SE 15 24 3 4 S20 6291 SE 23 125560 V 10/06-16 83 30 58 53 SE 15 4 5831 SE 23 114880 V 10/06-17 83 30 57 52 SE 15 4 5371 SE 22 104199 V 10/06-18 83 30 56 51 SE 14 22 3 4 S23 4911 SE 22 93519 G 10/06-19 83 30 53 57 SE 13 4 4184 SE 22 78949 G 10/06-20 83 30 51 62 SE 12 4 3456 SE 22 64380 G 10/06-21 83 30 50 65 SE 10 10 3 4 S33 2729 SE 21 49811 F 10/06-22 83 30 49 68 SE 9 4 2260 SE 17 36459 P 10/06-23 83 30 48 69 SE 7 4 1792 SE 13 23108 P 10/07-00 62 10 47 70 SE 6 6 2 1 SW28 1324 SE 8 9756 P 10/07-01 62 10 46 69 SE 6 1 1192 S 8 8789 P 10/07-02 62 10 45 67 SE 6 1 1059 S 8 7822 P 10/07-03 62 10 45 65 S 6 6 2 1 SW26 927 S 8 6856 P 10/07-04 62 10 44 63 SE 6 1 858 S 8 5731 P 10/07-05 62 10 44 62 SE 5 1 788 S 7 4606 P 10/07-06 62 10 44 61 SE 5 5 2 1 SW32 718 S 6 3481 P 10/07-07 62 10 45 59 SE 3 1 2392 S 7 20098 P 10/07-08 62 10 49 51 SE 3 1 4066 S 9 36714 P 10/07-09 62 10 53 43 SE 2 2 3 1 SW41 5739 S 10 53331 F 10/07-10 62 10 58 37 SE 2 1 7438 S 14 102704 V 10/07-11 62 10 60 35 SE 2 1 9137 S 17 151989 E 10/07-12 73 30 62 33 SE 2 2 3 4 SW44 10836 SW 22 201273 E 10/07-13 73 30 63 32 SE 2 4 11324 SW 22 213957 E 10/07-14 73 30 63 32 SE 3 4 11811 SW 22 226640 E 10/07-15 73 30 64 32 SE 5 5 3 4 SW35 12299 SW 22 239323 E 10/07-16 73 30 63 33 SE 6 4 11691 SW 22 227893 E 10/07-17 73 30 62 35 SE 6 4 11083 SW 23 216462 E 10/07-18 78 40 60 37 SE 7 7 3 4 SW48 10475 SW 23 205031 E 10/07-19 78 40 56 42 SE 7 4 7361 SW 17 139166 V 10/07-20 78 40 52 45 S 7 4 4246 S 13 73301 G 10/07-21 78 40 51 46 S 7 7 3 4 SW56 1131 S 8 7436 P 10/07-22 78 40 49 47 S 6 4 878 S 8 5840 P 10/07-23 78 40 48 47 S 6 4 626 S 8 4244 P 10/08-00 78 40 46 48 S 6 6 3 2 SW59 373 S 8 2648 P 10/08-01 78 40 45 49 S 6 2 366 S 9 2846 P 10/08-02 78 40 44 51 S 6 2 359 SW 9 3044 P 10/08-03 78 40 43 52 S 6 6 3 2 SW59 353 SW 10 3243 P 10/08-04 78 40 42 54 S 6 2 402 SW 10 3770 P 10/08-05 78 40 42 55 S 7 2 450 SW 12 4297 P 10/08-06 72 30 41 57 S 7 7 3 1 SW59 499 SW 12 4824 P 10/08-07 72 30 43 55 S 7 1 1830 SW 16 37519 P 10/08-08 72 30 44 53 SW 7 1 3161 SW 21 70214 G 10/08-09 72 30 47 48 SW 8 13 3 1 SW52 4491 SW 26 102909 V 10/08-10 72 30 50 44 SW 8 1 6420 SW 28 162580 E 10/08-11 72 30 52 43 SW 9 1 8348 SW 30 222251 E 10/08-12 79 30 53 41 W 9 15 3 4 SW51 10276 SW 31 281922 E 10/08-13 79 30 54 41 W 10 4 10383 SW 31 280768 E 10/08-14 79 30 54 40 W 12 4 10490 SW 31 279613 E 10/08-15 79 30 54 39 W 13 20 3 4 SW45 10597 SW 30 278459 E 10/08-16 79 30 54 40 W 13 4 10320 SW 28 250350 E 10/08-17 79 30 53 41 W 14 4 10044 SW 25 222242 E 10/08-18 79 30 51 42 W 14 22 3 4 SW39 9768 SW 23 194133 E 10/08-19 79 30 48 46 W 13 4 8668 W 23 172081 E 10/08-20 79 30 46 49 W 12 4 7569 W 23 150028 E 10/08-21 79 30 44 50 W 10 16 3 4 W28 6470 W 23 127975 V 10/08-22 79 30 43 51 W 8 4 5756 W 23 113018 V 10/08-23 79 30 42 51 W 7 4 5042 W 22 98061 G 10/09-00 66 20 41 53 W 6 6 2 1 NW41 4328 W 22 83104 G 10/09-01 66 20 40 53 W 5 1 3929 W 21 71863 G 10/09-02 66 20 39 54 W 5 1 3531 W 20 60622 G 10/09-03 66 20 39 55 W 3 3 2 1 W45 3132 W 18 49380 F 10/09-04 66 20 38 56 SW 3 1 2972 W 17 44015 F 10/09-05 66 20 38 57 SW 3 1 2812 W 16 38650 P 10/09-06 66 20 38 59 SW 5 5 2 1 W46 2653 W 15 33285 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER/ENTREKIN REQUESTED BY...RUSSELL DAWDY REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20101006.CHURC.01/BOU