FNUS75 KBOU 062227 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR CHURCHES PARK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 427 PM MDT WED OCT 6 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARE MOVING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING HELPING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 2100. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER COLORADO ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER NEVADA AND IDAHO. THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A TRANSITION TO COOLER WEATHER. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE MORNING WILL CHANGE TO WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER ON FRIDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-46. MAX HUMIDITY........66-74%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 7-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4500 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 1000-1500 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-64. MIN HUMIDITY........34-42%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTH 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 10000-11000 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-42. MAX HUMIDITY........70-78%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9000-10000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-56. MIN HUMIDITY........42-50%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 9000-10000 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600 THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .COLUMBUS DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1800. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CHURCHES PARK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/06-15 95 30 59 54 SE 13 21 3 4 SW24 7134 S 15 95963 G 10/06-16 95 30 58 53 SE 13 4 6216 S 16 84763 G 10/06-17 95 30 57 52 SE 13 4 5298 S 16 73563 G 10/06-18 95 30 56 51 SE 13 21 3 4 SW22 4380 S 16 62363 G 10/06-19 95 30 53 57 SE 12 4 3819 S 16 54964 F 10/06-20 95 30 51 62 SE 9 4 3258 S 17 47565 F 10/06-21 95 30 50 65 SE 8 13 3 4 SW32 2696 S 17 40166 F 10/06-22 95 30 49 68 SE 8 4 2196 S 16 31342 P 10/06-23 95 30 48 69 SE 8 4 1695 SE 15 22519 P 10/07-00 75 10 47 70 SE 8 13 3 1 SW28 1194 SE 13 13695 P 10/07-01 75 10 46 69 SE 7 1 1234 S 12 12434 P 10/07-02 75 10 45 67 SE 6 1 1273 S 10 11174 P 10/07-03 75 10 45 65 S 5 5 2 1 SW31 1313 S 9 9913 P 10/07-04 75 10 44 63 SE 5 1 1133 S 8 8106 P 10/07-05 75 10 44 62 SE 3 1 953 S 7 6300 P 10/07-06 62 10 44 61 SE 3 3 2 1 SW32 773 S 7 4493 P 10/07-07 62 10 45 59 S 2 1 2784 S 10 36274 P 10/07-08 62 10 49 51 S 2 1 4794 SW 14 68056 G 10/07-09 62 10 53 43 S 2 2 2 1 SW39 6805 SW 17 99837 G 10/07-10 62 10 58 37 S 3 1 7823 SW 18 125389 V 10/07-11 62 10 60 35 SW 6 1 8841 SW 20 150941 E 10/07-12 73 40 62 33 SW 8 13 3 4 S33 9858 SW 21 176493 E 10/07-13 73 40 63 32 SW 8 4 10628 SW 21 192846 E 10/07-14 73 40 63 32 S 8 4 11398 SW 21 209199 E 10/07-15 73 40 64 32 S 8 13 3 4 SW41 12167 SW 22 225552 E 10/07-16 73 40 63 33 S 8 4 11685 SW 21 208300 E 10/07-17 73 40 62 35 S 7 4 11203 SW 20 191047 E 10/07-18 74 40 60 37 SE 7 7 3 4 S36 10720 SW 18 173794 E 10/07-19 74 40 56 42 SE 7 4 7551 S 15 118408 V 10/07-20 74 40 52 45 S 7 4 4381 S 12 63022 G 10/07-21 74 40 51 46 S 7 7 3 4 SW47 1212 S 7 7636 P 10/07-22 74 40 49 47 S 7 4 878 S 8 5840 P 10/07-23 74 40 48 47 S 6 4 626 S 8 4244 P 10/08-00 74 40 46 48 S 6 6 3 2 SW59 373 S 8 2648 P 10/08-01 74 40 45 49 S 6 2 366 S 9 2846 P 10/08-02 74 40 44 50 S 6 2 359 SW 9 3044 P 10/08-03 74 40 43 52 S 6 6 3 2 SW59 353 SW 10 3243 P 10/08-04 74 40 42 54 S 6 2 402 SW 10 3770 P 10/08-05 74 40 42 55 S 7 2 450 SW 12 4297 P 10/08-06 72 30 41 57 S 7 7 3 1 SW59 499 SW 12 4824 P 10/08-07 72 30 43 55 S 7 1 1830 SW 16 37519 P 10/08-08 72 30 44 54 SW 8 1 3161 SW 21 70214 G 10/08-09 72 30 47 48 SW 8 13 3 1 SW52 4491 SW 26 102909 V 10/08-10 72 30 50 44 SW 8 1 6420 SW 28 162580 E 10/08-11 72 30 52 43 SW 9 1 8348 SW 30 222251 E 10/08-12 79 30 53 41 W 9 15 3 4 SW51 10276 SW 31 281922 E 10/08-13 79 30 54 41 W 10 4 10383 SW 31 280768 E 10/08-14 79 30 54 40 W 12 4 10490 SW 31 279613 E 10/08-15 79 30 54 39 W 13 21 3 4 SW45 10597 SW 30 278459 E 10/08-16 79 30 54 40 W 14 4 10320 SW 28 250350 E 10/08-17 79 30 53 41 W 14 4 10044 SW 25 222242 E 10/08-18 79 30 51 42 W 14 22 3 4 SW39 9768 SW 23 194133 E 10/08-19 79 30 48 46 W 13 4 8668 W 23 172081 E 10/08-20 79 30 46 49 W 12 4 7569 W 23 150028 E 10/08-21 79 30 44 50 W 10 16 3 4 W28 6470 W 23 127975 V 10/08-22 79 30 43 51 W 9 4 5756 W 23 113018 V 10/08-23 79 30 42 51 W 7 4 5042 W 22 98061 G 10/09-00 66 20 41 53 W 6 6 2 1 NW41 4328 W 22 83104 G 10/09-01 66 20 40 54 W 5 1 3929 W 21 71863 G 10/09-02 66 20 39 55 W 3 1 3531 W 20 60622 G 10/09-03 66 20 39 56 W 3 3 2 1 W45 3132 W 18 49380 F 10/09-04 66 20 38 57 W 3 1 2972 W 17 44015 F 10/09-05 66 20 38 58 SW 3 1 2812 W 16 38650 P 10/09-06 66 20 38 59 SW 5 5 2 1 W46 2653 W 15 33285 P 10/09-07 66 20 39 59 W 6 1 10/09-08 66 20 40 60 W 7 1 10/09-09 66 20 42 57 W 8 13 1 10/09-10 66 20 44 55 W 8 1 10/09-11 66 20 46 54 W 8 1 10/09-12 66 20 46 54 W 8 13 3 10/09-13 66 20 47 52 W 8 3 10/09-14 66 20 47 51 W 7 3 10/09-15 66 20 48 49 W 7 7 3 10/09-16 66 20 47 48 W 7 3 10/09-17 66 20 47 47 W 7 3 10/09-18 66 14 46 47 W 7 7 3 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ DANKERS...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...RUSSELL DAWDY REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20101006.CHURC.02/BOU