FNUS75 KBOU 071005 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 405 AM MDT THU OCT 7 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A MOIST AND UNSETTLED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE TIMBERLINE...UP TO 2 INCHES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITIES...AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLD ENOUGH TO BRING THE CHANCE OF SNOW DOWN INTO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59. MIN HUMIDITY........45-50%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 9-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 8000-9000 FT AGL AFTER 1000. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. VERY GOOD AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET. MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-44. MAX HUMIDITY........85-95%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 11-17 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 5600 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 4000 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 1200-2200 FT AGL UNTIL 2400...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0300...THEN 1000-1800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200 ...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-53. MIN HUMIDITY........45-50%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 15-25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 5200-6200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0700...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .COLUMBUS DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/07-03 81 20 47 54 SW 9 15 3 1 SW21 1478 S 15 19514 P 10/07-04 81 20 47 50 SW 10 1 1231 SW 14 15421 P 10/07-05 81 20 47 48 SW 10 1 985 SW 13 11328 P 10/07-06 61 10 47 47 SW 10 16 3 1 SW18 739 SW 12 7235 P 10/07-07 61 10 47 46 SW 8 1 1841 SW 12 19562 P 10/07-08 61 10 51 40 SW 6 1 2944 SW 13 31889 P 10/07-09 61 10 55 35 SW 5 5 3 1 SW21 4046 W 13 44216 F 10/07-10 61 10 59 32 SW 6 1 5194 SW 14 61833 G 10/07-11 61 10 61 31 S 8 1 6341 S 14 79450 G 10/07-12 73 40 62 31 S 10 16 3 4 SW30 7489 S 15 97067 G 10/07-13 73 40 63 31 S 13 4 8181 S 16 114056 V 10/07-14 73 40 64 31 S 15 4 8874 S 17 131045 V 10/07-15 73 40 64 30 S 15 24 3 4 SW36 9567 S 17 148033 V 10/07-16 73 40 63 31 S 13 4 8861 S 18 139484 V 10/07-17 73 40 62 33 S 9 4 8155 S 18 130934 V 10/07-18 75 60 61 35 S 7 7 3 5 SW31 7450 S 18 122385 V 10/07-19 75 60 58 40 S 7 5 5675 S 17 90123 G 10/07-20 75 60 55 45 S 9 5 3900 S 16 57861 F 10/07-21 75 60 53 48 S 10 16 3 5 S33 2125 S 14 25599 P 10/07-22 75 60 52 51 S 10 5 1563 S 14 19007 P 10/07-23 75 60 51 53 SW 9 5 1001 S 15 12415 P 10/08-00 75 60 50 55 SW 9 15 3 3 S29 439 SW 15 5823 P 10/08-01 75 60 49 56 SW 12 3 648 SW 16 9387 P 10/08-02 75 60 48 56 SW 14 3 857 SW 17 12951 P 10/08-03 75 60 47 56 SW 15 24 3 3 S40 1066 SW 17 16514 P 10/08-04 75 60 47 54 SW 15 3 1455 SW 20 25903 P 10/08-05 75 60 46 52 SW 14 3 1845 SW 21 35291 P 10/08-06 73 53 46 51 SW 13 21 3 2 S40 2234 SW 23 44679 F 10/08-07 73 53 47 51 SW 13 2 2976 SW 24 65778 G 10/08-08 73 53 47 51 SW 13 2 3718 SW 26 86877 G 10/08-09 73 53 49 49 W 13 21 3 2 S45 4460 SW 28 107976 V 10/08-10 73 53 47 53 W 13 2 3623 SW 24 74543 G 10/08-11 73 53 49 50 SW 13 2 5010 SW 23 98393 G 10/08-12 79 53 51 47 SW 14 22 3 4 SW31 6397 SW 22 122242 V 10/08-13 79 53 52 45 W 16 4 6270 SW 23 125563 V 10/08-14 79 53 52 44 W 20 4 6144 SW 24 128884 V 10/08-15 79 53 48 50 W 22 35 3 4 SW24 6017 SW 25 132205 V 10/08-16 79 53 49 47 W 22 4 5474 W 28 127098 V 10/08-17 79 53 47 49 W 21 4 4931 W 29 121991 V 10/08-18 79 27 45 51 W 21 33 3 1 S29 4388 W 31 116883 V 10/08-19 79 27 43 54 W 22 1 4082 W 31 111668 V 10/08-20 79 27 42 54 W 23 1 3775 W 32 106453 V 10/08-21 79 27 41 54 W 24 39 3 1 W18 3468 W 33 101237 V 10/08-22 79 27 39 57 W 24 1 2881 W 35 85567 G 10/08-23 79 27 37 60 W 23 1 2294 W 36 69896 G 10/09-00 66 20 35 64 W 23 37 3 1 W16 1706 W 37 54226 F 10/09-01 66 20 34 66 W 23 1 1523 W 38 49610 F 10/09-02 66 20 34 67 W 23 1 1339 W 39 44994 F 10/09-03 66 20 33 68 W 23 37 3 1 W21 1155 W 40 40378 F 10/09-04 66 20 33 68 W 23 1 1109 W 40 38351 P 10/09-05 66 20 33 69 W 24 1 1063 W 39 36324 P 10/09-06 66 20 33 69 W 24 39 2 1 NW47 1018 W 39 34297 P 10/09-07 66 20 36 60 W 23 1 1616 W 37 49621 F 10/09-08 66 20 38 52 W 22 1 2214 W 35 64945 G 10/09-09 66 20 45 40 W 21 33 2 1 NW44 2812 W 33 80269 G 10/09-10 66 20 49 35 W 20 1 4571 W 29 103654 V 10/09-11 66 20 52 32 W 17 1 6330 NW 25 127039 V 10/09-12 66 9 54 31 W 16 25 2 1 NW32 8088 NW 22 150424 E 10/09-13 66 9 55 31 W 16 1 8499 NW 21 151463 E 10/09-14 66 9 56 30 W 16 1 8909 NW 20 152502 E 10/09-15 66 9 55 32 W 16 25 2 1 NW25 9319 W 18 153541 E 10/09-16 66 9 53 34 W 16 1 7818 W 20 129636 V 10/09-17 66 9 50 40 W 15 1 6316 W 20 105732 V 10/09-18 47 5 46 48 W 15 24 2 1 NW23 4815 W 20 81827 G 10/09-19 47 5 43 53 W 14 1 3886 W 20 65404 G 10/09-20 47 5 42 56 W 14 1 2957 W 18 48981 F 10/09-21 47 5 41 57 W 13 21 3 1 W21 2029 W 18 32557 P 10/09-22 47 5 40 57 W 12 1 2154 W 18 33580 P 10/09-23 47 5 40 57 W 10 1 2279 W 17 34603 P 10/10-00 44 5 41 54 W 9 15 3 1 W18 2405 W 17 35626 P 10/10-01 44 5 41 53 W 9 1 2310 W 16 32791 P 10/10-02 44 5 40 53 W 8 1 2215 W 15 29956 P 10/10-03 44 5 40 54 W 8 13 2 1 NW12 2120 NW 15 27121 P 10/10-04 44 5 41 51 W 8 1 2295 NW 14 26784 P 10/10-05 44 5 41 50 W 7 1 2470 NW 13 26448 P 10/10-06 44 5 41 50 W 7 7 2 1 N12 2645 NW 12 26112 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FIRE OPERATIONS REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20101006.COWCR.01/BOU