FNUS75 KGJT 061431
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR RAY MESA II PILE BURN...MOAB BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
831 AM MDT WED OCT 6 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 MDT ON OCTOBER 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE DEEP UPPER LOW SPINS ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY
AND BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND THURSDAY. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTH
FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TODAY THE SITE WILL SEE SOME
CLEARING THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY
FILL IN BY NOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT
SURFACE-BASED INVERSIONS WILL BE WEAK AND MAY BREAK AT TIMES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FIRST
GUESS FOR RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING IS 0.10-0.30
INCHES...WITH ANOTHER 0.05-0.15 INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
BUT THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE STORMS MEANS RAINFALL WILL BE
HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH MUCH LESSER AND LARGER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    MORNING. SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 2-6 MPH INCREASING TO
                    SOUTH 7-12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY ERRATIC
                    WINDS NEAR NEAR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARING INDEX......200 UNTIL 1100...THEN INCREASING TO 1000+.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
                    EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE DUE TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS... BUT
                    SETTLING DOWN TO SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST 3-8 MPH.
                    GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARING INDEX......500 DECREASING TO 250 AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
                    DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-52%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 3-5 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARING INDEX......250 INCREASING TO 1000+ IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...CLARK MAUGHAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101006.RAYME.01/GJT