FNUS76 KMFR 080326
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHINA BACK...USFS/KNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
826 PM PDT THU OCT 7 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 PDT ON OCTOBER 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT PLENTY OF SUN SHOULD
FILTER THROUGH FOR A MILD DAY WITH TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. DUE TO THE
STEEP AND COMPLEX TERRAIN IN THIS AREA THE AMOUNT OF SHADOWING FROM THE
SURROUNDING TERRAIN ON AND NEAR THE BURN SITE IS LIKELY TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED. AN ATTEMPT WAS MADE TO
ESTIMATE THE SLOPE AND DRAINAGE FLOWS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT TERRAIN
STEEPNESS AND SUN ANGLE. THIS MEANS THAT THE MIXING WINDS ALOFT ABOVE
THE TERRAIN WILL DIFFER FROM THE SURFACE FLOW QUITE A BIT AT TIMES. THAT
BEING SAID...WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT. ON SATURDAY INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL TO THE WEST IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN MAINLY DOWNSLOPE AND
DOWN DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.


.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. FILTERED SUN THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-40 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....UPSLOPE AND UP DRAINAGE (MAINLY EAST) 2-6 MPH BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 2-4 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
                    DOWN DRAINAGE AND DOWNSLOPE 1-3 MPH LATE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-10
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.


.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-75 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE AND DOWN DRAINAGE (MAINLY WEST) 1-3 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL OR LESS DURING THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.


.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-72.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-45 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE 1-3 MPH BECOMING UPSLOPE AND
                    UPDRAINAGE EAST 1-3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN
                    DOWN DRAINAGE WEST 2-4 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 1000 FT AGL LATE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 2000-3000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...TOM FIELDEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20101008.CHINA.01/MFR