FNUS75 KBOU 101007 RRA FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 406 AM MDT SUN OCT 10 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH FACING ASPECTS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE TIMBERLINE. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-45. MIN HUMIDITY........50-55%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 12-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 5200-6200 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. VERY GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2200. MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-34. MAX HUMIDITY........65-70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 7-15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 17-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 2800-3800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 0500. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .COLUMBUS DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-55. MIN HUMIDITY........27-31%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 5400-6400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. COOLER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/10-02 85 70 40 66 NW 17 1 2429 NW 28 58182 F 10/10-03 85 70 40 65 NW 18 30 2 1 N44 2119 NW 26 49378 F 10/10-04 81 70 40 64 NW 20 1 1923 NW 29 47003 F 10/10-05 81 70 39 63 NW 21 1 1726 NW 30 44629 F 10/10-06 81 70 33 100 NW 15 24 3 1 N43 567 NW 25 12233 P 10/10-07 81 70 34 98 NW 16 1 1245 NW 28 32984 P 10/10-08 81 70 37 89 NW 17 1 1924 NW 30 53736 F 10/10-09 81 70 42 76 NW 18 30 2 1 N45 2602 NW 33 74487 G 10/10-10 81 70 46 66 NW 17 1 3561 NW 32 99224 G 10/10-11 81 70 48 61 NW 16 1 4521 NW 32 123961 V 10/10-12 73 60 49 58 NW 15 24 2 1 N41 5480 N 31 148698 V 10/10-13 73 60 50 57 NW 14 1 5741 N 30 147343 V 10/10-14 73 60 50 56 NW 13 1 6003 N 28 145988 V 10/10-15 73 60 51 55 NW 13 21 2 1 N40 6264 N 26 144633 V 10/10-16 73 60 51 56 NW 13 1 5990 N 26 137874 V 10/10-17 73 60 50 57 NW 13 1 5716 N 26 131115 V 10/10-18 58 10 49 58 NW 13 21 2 1 N37 5443 N 26 124356 V 10/10-19 58 10 47 63 NW 13 1 4872 N 25 109869 V 10/10-20 58 10 46 67 N 13 1 4301 N 25 95382 G 10/10-21 58 10 45 69 N 12 18 2 1 N35 3730 N 25 80895 G 10/10-22 58 10 44 70 NW 10 1 3592 N 24 74231 G 10/10-23 58 10 43 70 NW 9 1 3454 N 22 67566 G 10/11-00 33 5 43 71 NW 8 13 2 1 N35 3317 N 21 60902 G 10/11-01 33 5 42 69 NW 8 1 3214 N 20 55769 F 10/11-02 33 5 42 67 NW 9 1 3110 N 18 50636 F 10/11-03 33 5 41 64 NW 10 16 2 1 N31 3007 N 17 45504 F 10/11-04 33 5 41 59 NW 10 1 2770 N 16 40219 F 10/11-05 33 5 41 55 NW 9 1 2533 N 16 34933 P 10/11-06 33 0 40 53 NW 8 13 2 1 N30 2075 N 15 26243 P 10/11-07 33 0 40 51 NW 8 1 2621 N 14 31864 P 10/11-08 33 0 44 44 NW 8 1 3167 N 14 37486 P 10/11-09 33 0 50 36 NW 8 13 2 1 N30 3712 N 14 43108 F 10/11-10 33 0 53 34 N 7 1 4782 N 13 54192 F 10/11-11 33 0 55 33 N 7 1 5851 N 13 65277 G 10/11-12 25 3 56 31 N 6 6 2 1 N29 6921 N 13 76361 G 10/11-13 25 3 57 29 N 6 1 6866 N 12 69901 G 10/11-14 25 3 56 28 N 5 1 6811 N 10 63441 G 10/11-15 25 3 55 27 N 5 5 2 1 N29 6756 N 9 56981 F 10/11-16 25 3 53 30 N 5 1 5748 N 9 45859 F 10/11-17 25 3 51 34 NE 5 1 4739 N 8 34737 P 10/11-18 40 3 48 41 NE 5 5 2 1 N30 3731 N 7 23615 P 10/11-19 40 3 46 43 N 5 1 2965 NW 7 18981 P 10/11-20 40 3 45 45 NW 6 1 2198 NW 8 14347 P 10/11-21 40 3 44 46 NW 6 6 2 1 N24 1432 NW 8 9713 P 10/11-22 40 3 43 46 NW 6 1 1313 NW 8 8911 P 10/11-23 40 3 43 46 NW 7 1 1195 NW 8 8110 P 10/12-00 56 9 44 44 NW 7 7 2 1 N16 1076 NW 8 7308 P 10/12-01 56 9 44 44 NW 7 1 980 NW 8 6666 P 10/12-02 56 9 43 46 NW 7 1 883 NW 8 6024 P 10/12-03 56 9 43 48 NW 7 7 2 1 NW 9 787 NW 8 5382 P 10/12-04 56 9 43 48 NW 7 1 839 NW 7 5073 P 10/12-05 56 9 43 50 NW 7 1 891 NW 6 4764 P 10/12-06 89 22 42 53 NW 7 7 2 1 NW15 943 NW 6 4455 P 10/12-07 89 22 42 54 W 6 1 1245 NW 6 5811 P 10/12-08 89 22 43 55 SW 5 1 1547 W 6 7166 P 10/12-09 89 22 44 54 S 3 3 2 1 W17 1849 W 6 8521 P 10/12-10 89 22 45 54 S 3 1 2292 W 7 13723 P 10/12-11 89 22 45 54 S 5 1 2735 W 8 18924 P 10/12-12 56 29 46 55 S 5 5 2 1 W25 3177 W 9 24125 P 10/12-13 56 29 46 57 SW 5 1 3174 W 9 25359 P 10/12-14 56 29 45 61 NW 3 1 3170 W 9 26594 P 10/12-15 56 29 45 64 N 3 3 2 1 W30 3166 W 10 27829 P 10/12-16 56 29 43 69 NW 3 1 2443 W 10 21704 P 10/12-17 56 29 42 73 W 5 1 1720 W 10 15579 P 10/12-18 54 18 39 79 W 6 6 3 1 W30 997 W 10 9455 P 10/12-19 54 18 39 78 W 6 1 778 W 10 7319 P 10/12-20 54 18 37 77 W 7 1 559 W 10 5183 P 10/12-21 54 18 37 74 W 7 7 5 1 NW24 341 W 10 3047 P 10/12-22 54 18 37 72 W 7 1 355 W 10 3094 P 10/12-23 54 18 36 69 W 7 1 369 W 10 3141 P 10/13-00 19 0 37 65 W 7 7 4 1 NW18 383 W 9 3187 P 10/13-01 19 0 37 62 W 7 1 397 W 9 3311 P 10/13-02 19 0 37 62 W 8 1 410 W 9 3435 P 10/13-03 19 0 36 62 W 8 8 4 1 NW25 423 W 9 3558 P 10/13-04 19 0 37 60 W 8 1 395 W 9 3251 P 10/13-05 19 0 36 60 W 8 1 367 W 9 2944 P 10/13-06 15 0 36 61 W 8 8 4 1 NW31 339 W 9 2637 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ALEX VIKTORA REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20101009.COWCR.01/BOU