FNUS75 KBOU 111027 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 425 AM MDT MON OCT 11 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-57. MIN HUMIDITY........32-35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 6-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 8400-9400 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. GOOD AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0200. MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-40. MAX HUMIDITY........63-68%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN WEST 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-44. MIN HUMIDITY........58-63%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH/NORTHEAST 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 3000-4000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .FRIDAY...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/11-04 34 0 37 73 W 10 1 317 NW 12 3073 P 10/11-05 34 0 37 68 W 10 1 305 W 10 2894 P 10/11-06 16 0 32 89 W 9 15 2 1 N31 239 W 10 2184 P 10/11-07 16 0 33 85 W 8 1 1780 NW 14 28122 P 10/11-08 16 0 38 69 W 7 1 3320 NW 16 54060 F 10/11-09 16 0 44 54 W 6 6 2 1 N31 4861 N 18 79998 G 10/11-10 16 0 49 44 NW 6 1 6131 N 18 96158 G 10/11-11 16 0 52 40 NW 7 1 7400 N 17 112317 V 10/11-12 25 0 54 38 N 7 7 2 1 N26 8670 N 17 128477 V 10/11-13 25 0 55 36 N 7 1 9003 N 16 122234 V 10/11-14 25 0 56 36 N 7 1 9337 N 15 115991 V 10/11-15 25 0 57 35 N 7 7 2 1 N23 9670 N 13 109749 V 10/11-16 25 0 56 36 N 6 1 8982 NW 13 99252 G 10/11-17 25 0 55 37 N 5 1 8294 NW 13 88754 G 10/11-18 37 5 53 39 N 3 3 2 1 N22 7606 NW 12 78257 G 10/11-19 37 5 50 45 NW 3 1 5467 NW 9 53566 F 10/11-20 37 5 47 50 W 3 1 3329 NW 7 28875 P 10/11-21 37 5 45 53 SW 3 3 2 1 N23 1190 NW 5 4184 P 10/11-22 37 5 44 57 W 3 1 875 W 5 3277 P 10/11-23 37 5 42 60 W 5 1 560 W 6 2369 P 10/12-00 54 10 41 63 W 6 6 2 1 N17 246 W 7 1461 P 10/12-01 54 10 40 64 W 7 1 241 W 8 1581 P 10/12-02 54 10 39 63 W 9 1 237 W 8 1700 P 10/12-03 54 10 39 63 W 9 15 2 1 NW18 232 W 9 1820 P 10/12-04 54 10 38 63 W 8 1 249 W 8 1640 P 10/12-05 54 10 38 64 W 6 1 266 W 7 1460 P 10/12-06 89 30 41 72 SW 3 3 2 1 NW18 467 W 7 2694 P 10/12-07 89 30 41 74 W 3 1 1209 W 8 9917 P 10/12-08 89 30 40 77 NW 3 1 1952 NW 9 17141 P 10/12-09 89 30 40 80 N 5 5 2 1 NW17 2695 NW 10 24364 P 10/12-10 89 30 40 81 N 5 1 3043 NW 9 23073 P 10/12-11 89 30 41 82 NE 5 1 3390 NW 8 21783 P 10/12-12 50 22 41 82 NE 5 5 2 1 NW18 3738 NW 6 20492 P 10/12-13 50 22 41 81 NE 5 1 3819 NW 7 22359 P 10/12-14 50 22 41 79 NE 3 1 3900 NW 7 24227 P 10/12-15 50 22 41 76 NE 3 3 2 1 NW24 3981 NW 8 26094 P 10/12-16 50 22 42 74 NE 3 1 3529 NW 7 22978 P 10/12-17 50 22 43 71 N 3 1 3077 W 7 19862 P 10/12-18 50 8 40 79 N 3 3 2 1 NW33 2625 W 7 16746 P 10/12-19 50 8 37 81 NW 3 1 1927 W 6 11651 P 10/12-20 50 8 36 78 SW 3 1 1228 SW 5 6556 P 10/12-21 50 8 35 75 S 3 3 2 1 NW35 530 S 3 1461 P 10/12-22 50 8 34 75 S 3 1 437 SW 3 1270 P 10/12-23 50 8 33 74 SW 3 1 345 SW 3 1080 P 10/13-00 17 3 33 74 SW 3 3 3 1 W36 252 SW 5 889 P 10/13-01 17 3 32 73 SW 3 1 242 SW 5 906 P 10/13-02 17 3 32 72 SW 5 1 232 W 5 923 P 10/13-03 17 0 32 74 W 5 5 3 1 NW37 223 W 5 940 P 10/13-04 17 0 31 75 W 5 1 211 W 6 971 P 10/13-05 17 0 31 76 W 6 1 199 W 6 1001 P 10/13-06 15 0 31 76 W 6 6 2 1 NW38 188 W 6 1032 P 10/13-07 15 0 32 76 W 5 1 1353 W 9 15252 P 10/13-08 15 0 34 69 W 5 1 2517 NW 12 29471 P 10/13-09 15 0 42 52 W 3 3 2 1 NW38 3682 NW 14 43691 F 10/13-10 15 0 48 42 W 3 1 5079 NW 16 73197 G 10/13-11 15 0 52 35 NW 3 1 6476 NW 17 102702 V 10/13-12 15 0 56 31 N 3 3 2 1 N37 7874 NW 20 132208 V 10/13-13 15 0 57 29 N 5 1 7864 NW 17 121125 V 10/13-14 15 0 57 30 N 6 1 7854 NW 16 110042 V 10/13-15 15 0 57 30 N 6 6 2 1 N36 7844 NW 15 98959 G 10/13-16 15 0 56 32 N 5 1 7221 NW 14 86722 G 10/13-17 15 0 54 35 N 3 1 6599 NW 13 74485 G 10/13-18 3 0 51 39 N 3 3 2 1 N30 5977 NW 12 62248 G 10/13-19 3 0 47 43 NW 5 1 4120 NW 10 42430 F 10/13-20 3 0 45 46 W 6 1 2264 W 9 22612 P 10/13-21 3 0 43 48 W 7 7 3 1 N23 407 W 8 2794 P 10/13-22 3 0 42 49 W 8 1 358 W 9 2684 P 10/13-23 3 0 41 49 W 9 1 309 W 10 2574 P 10/14-00 3 0 40 49 W 10 10 3 1 NW15 259 W 12 2464 P 10/14-01 3 0 40 48 W 12 1 240 W 12 2325 P 10/14-02 3 0 40 47 W 12 1 221 W 12 2186 P 10/14-03 3 0 39 48 W 12 12 4 1 NW17 201 W 12 2047 P 10/14-04 3 0 38 48 W 12 1 191 W 12 1905 P 10/14-05 3 0 38 49 W 12 1 181 W 12 1763 P 10/14-06 5 0 38 48 W 12 12 4 1 NW20 171 W 10 1621 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JEFF SINGER REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20101010.COWCR.01/BOU