FNUS75 KBOU 141111 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 510 AM MDT THU OCT 14 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS VERY WARM AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THIS RIDGE INCHES CLOSER TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TODAY. SO TOO WILL SURFACE WINDS WITH A VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-65. MIN HUMIDITY........23-28%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-8 MPH UNTIL 1000... BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST-NORTHWEST 9-18 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...RISING TO 6400-7400 FT AGL BETWEEN 1100 AND 1600. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39. MAX HUMIDITY........47-53%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...LOWERING TO BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...BECOMING POOR AFTER 2200. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-69. MIN HUMIDITY........16-22%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6-12 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN WEST WINDS 11-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 28 MPH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 1200-1600 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 4800-5800 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 9600-10600 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 7800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...BECOMING EXCELLENT AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .MONDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/14-04 2 0 36 63 W 13 1 167 W 10 1557 P 10/14-05 2 0 35 64 W 13 1 156 W 10 1451 P 10/14-06 3 0 36 61 W 13 21 5 1 N16 145 W 10 1345 P 10/14-07 3 0 37 59 W 12 1 483 W 10 3732 P 10/14-08 3 0 42 48 W 9 1 821 W 9 6119 P 10/14-09 3 0 49 38 W 8 13 5 1 N10 1159 W 8 8505 P 10/14-10 3 0 55 30 W 7 1 2789 W 8 20954 P 10/14-11 3 0 57 27 SW 6 1 4419 W 8 33402 P 10/14-12 4 0 60 24 SW 6 6 5 1 NW 8 6049 NW 9 45850 F 10/14-13 4 0 61 24 SW 6 1 6689 W 8 48580 F 10/14-14 4 0 61 25 SW 5 1 7329 W 8 51310 F 10/14-15 4 0 62 24 SW 5 5 3 1 W 8 7969 W 8 54041 F 10/14-16 4 0 61 25 SW 5 1 7048 W 8 51193 F 10/14-17 4 0 60 24 W 3 1 6127 W 9 48345 F 10/14-18 2 0 57 25 W 5 5 3 1 W10 5206 W 10 45497 F 10/14-19 2 0 52 30 W 7 1 3567 W 10 31298 P 10/14-20 2 0 48 33 W 9 1 1929 W 12 17100 P 10/14-21 2 0 46 35 W 12 18 5 1 W12 290 W 12 2902 P 10/14-22 2 0 44 37 W 13 1 246 W 12 2445 P 10/14-23 2 0 43 37 W 13 1 201 W 12 1988 P 10/15-00 2 0 41 39 W 13 21 5 1 W13 157 W 12 1531 P 10/15-01 2 0 40 41 W 12 1 151 W 12 1488 P 10/15-02 2 0 39 44 W 12 1 145 W 12 1446 P 10/15-03 2 0 38 46 W 10 16 5 1 W16 140 W 12 1403 P 10/15-04 2 0 38 47 W 10 1 138 W 13 1466 P 10/15-05 2 0 37 48 W 10 1 136 W 13 1529 P 10/15-06 2 0 37 48 W 12 18 5 1 W16 134 W 14 1593 P 10/15-07 2 0 38 45 W 13 1 636 W 16 11645 P 10/15-08 2 0 43 36 W 14 1 1138 W 20 21698 P 10/15-09 2 0 51 27 W 16 25 5 1 W18 1640 W 22 31750 P 10/15-10 2 0 57 21 W 16 1 4134 W 22 66656 G 10/15-11 2 0 61 19 W 17 1 6471 W 18 94289 G 10/15-12 2 0 63 18 W 17 28 5 1 W15 8808 W 16 121923 V 10/15-13 2 0 64 17 W 17 1 9553 W 17 142420 V 10/15-14 2 0 65 16 W 17 1 10298 W 18 162917 E 10/15-15 2 0 66 16 W 16 25 5 1 W16 11043 W 20 183415 E 10/15-16 2 0 65 17 W 15 1 9445 W 21 167065 E 10/15-17 2 0 63 19 W 14 1 7846 W 23 150716 E 10/15-18 10 0 60 22 W 13 21 5 1 W21 6248 W 25 134366 V 10/15-19 10 0 55 28 W 13 1 4418 W 23 94130 G 10/15-20 10 0 50 34 W 14 1 2588 W 22 53895 F 10/15-21 10 0 48 37 W 14 22 5 1 W13 758 W 21 13660 P 10/15-22 10 0 46 41 W 14 1 579 W 18 10077 P 10/15-23 10 0 45 43 W 14 1 401 W 17 6494 P 10/16-00 4 0 43 45 W 14 22 4 1 W15 223 W 15 2912 P 10/16-01 4 0 42 47 W 14 1 204 W 15 2599 P 10/16-02 4 0 40 49 W 13 1 185 W 14 2287 P 10/16-03 4 0 39 50 W 13 21 4 1 W21 167 W 14 1975 P 10/16-04 4 0 39 52 W 13 1 159 W 13 1740 P 10/16-05 4 0 38 53 W 12 1 152 W 12 1504 P 10/16-06 7 0 37 54 W 10 16 4 1 W23 144 W 10 1269 P 10/16-07 7 0 39 53 SW 8 1 692 SW 9 4374 P 10/16-08 7 0 41 49 S 6 1 1240 SW 8 7478 P 10/16-09 7 0 47 41 S 5 5 2 1 W25 1787 S 7 10582 P 10/16-10 7 0 52 35 S 5 1 3941 SW 9 41229 F 10/16-11 7 0 54 32 S 5 1 6094 SW 12 71876 G 10/16-12 17 0 56 30 SE 6 6 2 1 W26 8248 W 14 102523 V 10/16-13 17 0 57 29 SE 6 1 8720 W 15 111343 V 10/16-14 17 0 57 28 SE 6 1 9191 W 15 120163 V 10/16-15 17 0 58 28 SE 6 6 3 1 W29 9663 W 15 128982 V 10/16-16 17 0 57 29 SE 5 1 8448 W 14 107514 V 10/16-17 17 0 56 30 SE 5 1 7233 W 14 86046 G 10/16-18 17 0 54 32 SE 3 3 3 1 W26 6018 W 13 64579 G 10/16-19 17 0 50 37 S 3 1 4137 W 10 43671 F 10/16-20 17 0 47 41 SW 3 1 2255 W 8 22763 P 10/16-21 17 0 46 43 SW 5 5 3 1 W26 373 W 6 1855 P 10/16-22 17 0 44 43 SW 5 1 321 W 7 1751 P 10/16-23 17 0 43 42 SW 6 1 269 W 7 1648 P 10/17-00 38 0 42 42 SW 7 7 2 1 W25 217 W 8 1544 P 10/17-01 38 0 41 43 SW 9 1 209 W 10 1872 P 10/17-02 38 0 41 44 W 13 1 201 W 13 2200 P 10/17-03 38 0 40 45 W 14 22 2 1 W16 193 W 15 2528 P 10/17-04 38 0 39 46 W 13 1 192 W 14 2280 P 10/17-05 38 0 39 48 W 10 1 190 W 13 2032 P 10/17-06 46 0 38 49 W 8 13 2 1 W12 188 W 10 1784 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JEFF SINGER REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20101013.COWCR.01/BOU